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Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community

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  • Elisa Benincà

    (Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands
    Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, University of Wageningen)

  • Jef Huisman

    (Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Reinhard Heerkloss

    (Institute of Biosciences, University of Rostock)

  • Klaus D. Jöhnk

    (Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands
    Present address: Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Alte Fischerhütte 2, 16775 Neuglobsow, Germany.)

  • Pedro Branco

    (Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Egbert H. Van Nes

    (Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, University of Wageningen)

  • Marten Scheffer

    (Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, University of Wageningen)

  • Stephen P. Ellner

    (Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA)

Abstract

Food webs: chaos reigns Many mathematical models predict chaos in food webs, raising doubts over the extent to which we can predict future changes in species abundances as a result of climate change and habitat loss. This 'ecological' chaos has been demonstrated in simple model systems but not in real ecosystems, leading to suggestions that the real world may have a way of avoiding it. But now an extended (8 year) experimental study of a marine planktonic community isolated from the Baltic Sea has revealed 'naturally' chaotic population dynamics, implying that our ability to predict the long-term dynamics of real ecosystems may indeed be severely limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisa Benincà & Jef Huisman & Reinhard Heerkloss & Klaus D. Jöhnk & Pedro Branco & Egbert H. Van Nes & Marten Scheffer & Stephen P. Ellner, 2008. "Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7180), pages 822-825, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:451:y:2008:i:7180:d:10.1038_nature06512
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06512
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Banas, Neil S., 2011. "Adding complex trophic interactions to a size-spectral plankton model: Emergent diversity patterns and limits on predictability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2663-2675.
    2. Karunarathna, K.A.N.K. & Wells, Konstans & Clark, Nicholas J., 2024. "Modelling nonlinear responses of a desert rodent species to environmental change with hierarchical dynamic generalized additive models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    3. Adrien Bernard Bonache & Marc Filser, 2013. "Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos," Post-Print hal-03822792, HAL.
    4. Cagle, Sierra E. & Roelke, Daniel L., 2024. "Chaotic mixotroph dynamics arise with nutrient loading: Implications for mixotrophy as a harmful bloom forming mechanism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    5. Grasman, Johan & van Nes, Egbert H. & Kersting, Kees, 2009. "Data-directed modelling of Daphnia dynamics in a long-term micro-ecosystem experiment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 343-350.
    6. Shang, Zuchong & Qiao, Yuanhua, 2024. "Complex dynamics of a four-species food web model with nonlinear top predator harvesting and fear effect," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 458-484.
    7. Wang, Lin & Tang, Ying & Wang, Rui-Wu & Shang, Xiao-Ya, 2019. "Re-evaluating the ‘plankton paradox’ using an interlinked empirical data and a food web model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Guiet, Jérôme & Poggiale, Jean-Christophe & Maury, Olivier, 2016. "Modelling the community size-spectrum: recent developments and new directions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 4-14.
    9. Roelke, Daniel L. & Eldridge, Peter M., 2010. "Losers in the ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ game: The role of non-hierarchical competition and chaos as biodiversity sustaining agents in aquatic systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(7), pages 1017-1027.
    10. Yan Huang & Jiansong Wan, 2022. "Hierarchical analysis of Chinese financial market based on manifold structure," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1135-1150, August.
    11. Occhipinti, Guido & Solidoro, Cosimo & Grimaudo, Roberto & Valenti, Davide & Lazzari, Paolo, 2023. "Marine ecosystem models of realistic complexity rarely exhibits significant endogenous non-stationary dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    12. Yamauchi, Atsushi & Ito, Koichi & Shibasaki, Shota & Namba, Toshiyuki, 2023. "Continuous irregular dynamics with multiple neutral trajectories permit species coexistence in competitive communities," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 39-47.
    13. Richard Ottermanns & Kerstin Szonn & Thomas G Preuß & Martina Roß-Nickoll, 2014. "Non-Linear Analysis Indicates Chaotic Dynamics and Reduced Resilience in Model-Based Daphnia Populations Exposed to Environmental Stress," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-13, May.
    14. Alejandra Goldenberg Vilar & Timme Donders & Aleksandra Cvetkoska & Friederike Wagner-Cremer, 2018. "Seasonality modulates the predictive skills of diatom based salinity transfer functions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Chuanjun Dai & Hengguo Yu & Qing Guo & He Liu & Qi Wang & Zengling Ma & Min Zhao, 2019. "Dynamics Induced by Delay in a Nutrient-Phytoplankton Model with Multiple Delays," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-16, February.
    16. Kaur, Rajinder Pal & Sharma, Amit & Sharma, Anuj Kumar & Sahu, Govind Prasad, 2021. "Chaos control of chaotic plankton dynamics in the presence of additional food, seasonality, and time delay," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    17. Samuel R Bray & Bo Wang, 2020. "Forecasting unprecedented ecological fluctuations," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Karnatak, Rajat & Ramaswamy, Ram & Feudel, Ulrike, 2014. "Conjugate coupling in ecosystems: Cross-predation stabilizes food webs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 48-57.
    19. Adrien Bonache & Karen Moris, 2011. "Premières preuves empiriques de chaos dans les ventes de biens à la mode - First empirical evidence of chaos in the sales of fashion goods," Working Papers CREGO 1110602, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    20. Chowdhury, Pranali Roy & Banerjee, Malay & Petrovskii, Sergei, 2023. "Coexistence of chaotic and non-chaotic attractors in a three-species slow–fast system," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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