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Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity

Author

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  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA)

  • Brian J. Soden

    (Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida 33149, USA)

Abstract

Remote control of cyclones The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is poorly understood. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures favour cyclone development and intensification, but this may not be the case as so many other factors are involved. Gabriel Vecchi and Brian Soden explore the relationship between changes in sea-surface temperature and a measure called 'tropical cyclone potential intensity', which provides an upper limit on cyclone intensity. They find that changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming, rather than local sea surface temperature — regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. This suggests that the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger (per unit local sea surface temperature change) than the response to the more uniform patterns of warming induced by greenhouse gases.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi & Brian J. Soden, 2007. "Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity," Nature, Nature, vol. 450(7172), pages 1066-1070, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:450:y:2007:i:7172:d:10.1038_nature06423
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06423
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Condon & Y. Peter Sheng, 2012. "Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 345-373, June.
    2. Kieran Bhatia & Alexander Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel Vecchi & Thomas Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Kevin Hodges & Keith Dixon & Benjamin Bronselaer & Carolyn Whitlock, 2022. "A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Eric Kemp-Benedict & Jonathan Lamontagne & Timothy Laing & Crystal Drakes, 2019. "Climate Impacts on Capital Accumulation in the Small Island State of Barbados," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Debashis Paul & Jagabandhu Panda & Ashish Routray, 2022. "Ocean and atmospheric characteristics associated with the cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of NIO super cyclonic storms during 1981–2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 261-289, October.
    6. James M. Done & Debasish PaiMazumder & Erin Towler & Chandra M. Kishtawal, 2018. "Estimating impacts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using an index of damage potential," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 561-573, February.
    7. Sidha Sankalpa Moharana & Debadatta Swain, 2023. "On the recent increase in Atlantic Ocean hurricane activity and influencing factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1387-1399, September.
    8. Mir Mousavi & Jennifer Irish & Ashley Frey & Francisco Olivera & Billy Edge, 2011. "Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 575-597, February.
    9. James Done & Greg Holland & Cindy Bruyère & L. Leung & Asuka Suzuki-Parker, 2015. "Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 381-395, April.
    10. Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Karthik Balaguru & David R. Judi & L. Ruby Leung, 2016. "Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 99-110, September.
    12. Graciano Yumul & Nathaniel Servando & Leilanie Suerte & Mae Magarzo & Leo Juguan & Carla Dimalanta, 2012. "Tropical cyclone–southwest monsoon interaction and the 2008 floods and landslides in Panay island, central Philippines: meteorological and geological factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 827-840, July.

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