Context-dependent autonomous self-fertilization yields reproductive assurance and mixed mating

The evolution of self-fertilization in hermaphrodites is opposed by costs that decrease the value of self progeny relative to that of outcross progeny1,2,3. However, self-fertilization is common in plants4; 20% are highly selfing and 33% are intermediate between selfing and outcrossing5. Darwin6 proposed an adaptive benefit of self-pollination in providing reproductive assurance when outcrossing is impossible6,7,8,9. Moreover, if outcross pollen receipt is inconsistent within or between years, these conditions likewise favour self-pollination10, and this can result in a mixture of self and outcross seed production (mixed mating). Despite wide acceptance, the reproductive assurance hypothesis has lacked the support of complete empirical evidence to show that variable pollination can create both the ecological and genetic conditions favouring self-pollination. We recently showed in Collinsia verna that during periods of infrequent pollinator visits, autonomous self-pollination boosted seed output per flower11, the key ecological condition. Here we show low inbreeding depression and marker-based estimates of selfing, demonstrating that when the pollination environment in wild populations necessitates reproductive assurance, selfing rates increase. We provide a complete demonstration of reproductive assurance under variable pollination environments and mechanistically link reproductive assurance to intermediate selfing rates through mixed mating.