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Maturation trends indicative of rapid evolution preceded the collapse of northern cod

Author

Listed:
  • Esben M. Olsen

    (Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    University of Oslo)

  • Mikko Heino

    (Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Institute of Marine Research)

  • George R. Lilly

    (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre)

  • M. Joanne Morgan

    (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre)

  • John Brattey

    (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre)

  • Bruno Ernande

    (Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Ulf Dieckmann

    (Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Northern cod, comprising populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off southern Labrador and eastern Newfoundland, supported major fisheries for hundreds of years1. But in the late 1980s and early 1990s, northern cod underwent one of the worst collapses in the history of fisheries2,3,4. The Canadian government closed the directed fishing for northern cod in July 1992, but even after a decade-long offshore moratorium, population sizes remain historically low4. Here we show that, up until the moratorium, the life history of northern cod continually shifted towards maturation at earlier ages and smaller sizes. Because confounding effects of mortality changes and growth-mediated phenotypic plasticity are accounted for in our analyses, this finding strongly suggests fisheries-induced evolution of maturation patterns in the direction predicted by theory5,6. We propose that fisheries managers could use the method described here as a tool to provide warning signals about changes in life history before more overt evidence of population decline becomes manifest.

Suggested Citation

  • Esben M. Olsen & Mikko Heino & George R. Lilly & M. Joanne Morgan & John Brattey & Bruno Ernande & Ulf Dieckmann, 2004. "Maturation trends indicative of rapid evolution preceded the collapse of northern cod," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6986), pages 932-935, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:428:y:2004:i:6986:d:10.1038_nature02430
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02430
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    Cited by:

    1. Josep Alós & Miquel Palmer & Robert Arlinghaus, 2012. "Consistent Selection towards Low Activity Phenotypes When Catchability Depends on Encounters among Human Predators and Fish," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-9, October.
    2. Maroto, Jose M. & Moran, Manuel, 2014. "Detecting the presence of depensation in collapsed fisheries: The case of the Northern cod stock," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 101-109.
    3. Oksana Revutskaya & Galina Neverova & Efim Frisman, 2024. "Discrete-Time Model of an Exploited Population with Age and Sex Structures: Instability and the Hydra Effect," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-27, February.
    4. Dercole, Fabio & Prieu, Charlotte & Rinaldi, Sergio, 2010. "Technological change and fisheries sustainability: The point of view of Adaptive Dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 379-387.
    5. Song, Zhiyuan & Feldman, Marcus W., 2013. "Plant–animal mutualism in biological markets: Evolutionary and ecological dynamics driven by non-heritable phenotypic variance," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 20-30.
    6. Andersen, K.H. & Farnsworth, K.D. & Thygesen, U.H. & Beyer, J.E., 2007. "The evolutionary pressure from fishing on size at maturation of Baltic cod," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 246-252.
    7. Guttormsen, Atle G. & Kristofersson, Dadi & Nævdal, Eric, 2008. "Optimal management of renewable resources with Darwinian selection induced by harvesting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 167-179, September.
    8. Isomaa, Marleena & Kaitala, Veijo & Laakso, Jouni, 2013. "Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) recovery potential under different environment and fishery scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 118-125.
    9. Jordi Guillen & Steven J. Holmes & Natacha Carvalho & John Casey & Hendrik Dörner & Maurizio Gibin & Alessandro Mannini & Paraskevas Vasilakopoulos & Antonella Zanzi, 2018. "A Review of the European Union Landing Obligation Focusing on Its Implications for Fisheries and the Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, March.
    10. Emily J. Potratz & Robert D. Holt & Joel S. Brown, 2024. "Ecology of Fear: Acclimation and Adaptations to Hunting by Humans," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Stafford, Richard & Jones, Peter JS Dr, 2019. "Viewpoint – Ocean Plastic Pollution: a convenient but distracting truth?," MarXiv fu5dp, Center for Open Science.
    12. Hazlerigg, Charles R.E. & Tyler, Charles R. & Lorenzen, Kai & Wheeler, James R. & Thorbek, Pernille, 2014. "Population relevance of toxicant mediated changes in sex ratio in fish: An assessment using an individual-based zebrafish (Danio rerio) model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 76-88.
    13. Dercole, Fabio & Della Rossa, Fabio, 2017. "A deterministic eco-genetic model for the short-term evolution of exploited fish stocks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 80-100.
    14. Diekert, Florian K. & Hjermann, Dag Ø. & Nævdal , Eric & Stenseth , Nils Chr., 2008. "Optimal Age- and Gear-specific Harvesting Policies for North-East Arctic Cod," Memorandum 16/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    15. Nonaka, Etsuko & Kuparinen, Anna, 2023. "Limited effects of size-selective harvesting and harvesting-induced life-history changes on the temporal variability of biomass dynamics in complex food webs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    16. Hart, Anthony M., 2015. "Commercial scale invertebrate fisheries enhancement in Australia: Experiences, challenges and opportunities," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 82-93.
    17. Josepha Duarte Pinto Gomes & Bocar Sabaly Baldé & Saliou Faye & Iça Barry & Hervé Demarcq & Patrice Brehmer, 2024. "Growth Patterns of Small Pelagic Fish in West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Helgesen, Irmelin Slettemoen & Skonhoft, Anders & Eide, Arne, 2018. "Maximum Yield Fishing and Optimal Fleet Composition. A Stage Structured Model Analysis With an Example From the Norwegian North-East Arctic Cod Fishery," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 204-217.
    19. Hossain, Md. Monir & Matsuishi, Takashi & Arhonditsis, George, 2010. "Elucidation of ecosystem attributes of an oligotrophic lake in Hokkaido, Japan, using Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(13), pages 1717-1730.
    20. Williams, Meryl J., 2004. "World Fish Supplies, Outlook and Food Security," 2004: Fish, Aquaculture and Food Security: Sustaining Fish as a Food Supply, 11 August 2004 124062, Crawford Fund.

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