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Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch

Author

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  • Christopher M. Moy

    (Department of Earth Sciences, 204 Heroy Geology Laboratory, Syracuse University
    Stanford University)

  • Geoffrey O. Seltzer

    (Department of Earth Sciences, 204 Heroy Geology Laboratory, Syracuse University)

  • Donald T. Rodbell

    (Geology Department, Union College)

  • David M. Anderson

    (NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
    INSTAAR, University of Colorado)

Abstract

The variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene epoch, in particular on millennial timescales, is poorly understood. Palaeoclimate studies have documented ENSO variability for selected intervals in the Holocene, but most records are either too short or insufficiently resolved to investigate variability on millennial scales1,2,3. Here we present a record of sedimentation in Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, which is strongly influenced by ENSO variability, and covers the past 12,000 years continuously. We find that changes on a timescale of 2–8 years, which we attribute to warm ENSO events, become more frequent over the Holocene until about 1,200 years ago, and then decline towards the present. Periods of relatively high and low ENSO activity, alternating at a timescale of about 2,000 years, are superimposed on this long-term trend. We attribute the long-term trend to orbitally induced changes in insolation, and suggest internal ENSO dynamics as a possible cause of the millennial variability. However, the millennial oscillation will need to be confirmed in other ENSO proxy records.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher M. Moy & Geoffrey O. Seltzer & Donald T. Rodbell & David M. Anderson, 2002. "Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch," Nature, Nature, vol. 420(6912), pages 162-165, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:420:y:2002:i:6912:d:10.1038_nature01194
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01194
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    Cited by:

    1. Saco, Patricia M. & Carpi, Laura C. & Figliola, Alejandra & Serrano, Eduardo & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2010. "Entropy analysis of the dynamics of El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the Holocene," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 5022-5027.
    2. Gonçalves, Bruna Amin & Carpi, Laura & Rosso, Osvaldo A. & Ravetti, Martín G., 2016. "Time series characterization via horizontal visibility graph and Information Theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 93-102.
    3. Christina Karamperidou & Pedro N. DiNezio, 2022. "Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the tropical Pacific explained by changing ENSO diversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Md. Mahmudul Alam & Yusnidah Ibrahim & Md Shahin Mia, 2020. "Climate change impacts on yield and financial performance of agro-plantation companies in Malaysia," Post-Print hal-03520113, HAL.
    5. Shuai Zhang & Zhoufei Yu & Yue Wang & Xun Gong & Ann Holbourn & Fengming Chang & Heng Liu & Xuhua Cheng & Tiegang Li, 2022. "Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Marco Delle Rose, 2022. "Landscape Modifications Ascribed to El Niño Events in Late Pre-Hispanic Coastal Peru," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Flores, J.C., 2015. "A phase-transition model for the rise and collapse of ancient civilizations: A pre-ceramic Andean case study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 440(C), pages 155-160.
    8. Traversaro, Francisco & Redelico, Francisco O., 2018. "Characterization of autoregressive processes using entropic quantifiers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 13-23.
    9. Ferri, Gustavo L. & Figliola, Alejandra & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "Tsallis’ statistics in the variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the Holocene epoch," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2154-2162.
    10. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Long-run wavelet-based correlation for financial time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 676-696.

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