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Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model

Author

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  • Andrey Ganopolski

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Stefan Rahmstorf

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

Abrupt changes in climate, termed Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events, have punctuated the last glacial period (∼100–10 kyr ago) but not the Holocene (the past 10 kyr). Here we use an intermediate-complexity climate model to investigate the stability of glacial climate, and we find that only one mode of Atlantic Ocean circulation is stable: a cold mode with deep water formation in the Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland. However, a ‘warm’ circulation mode similar to the present-day Atlantic Ocean is only marginally unstable, and temporary transitions to this warm mode can easily be triggered. This leads to abrupt warm events in the model which share many characteristics of the observed Dansgaard–Oeschger events. For a large freshwater input (such as a large release of icebergs), the model's deep water formation is temporarily switched off, causing no strong cooling in Greenland but warming in Antarctica, as is observed for Heinrich events. Our stability analysis provides an explanation why glacial climate is much more variable than Holocene climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2001. "Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 409(6817), pages 153-158, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:409:y:2001:i:6817:d:10.1038_35051500
    DOI: 10.1038/35051500
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen, 2023. "Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Anders Levermann & Jonathan Bamber & Sybren Drijfhout & Andrey Ganopolski & Winfried Haeberli & Neil Harris & Matthias Huss & Kirstin Krüger & Timothy Lenton & Ronald Lindsay & Dirk Notz & Peter Wadha, 2012. "Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 845-878, February.
    3. Maya Ben-Yami & Vanessa Skiba & Sebastian Bathiany & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Shivangini Singh & Shashi Kumar & Navneet Kumar, 2023. "Evolution of Iceberg A68 since Its Inception from the Collapse of Antarctica’s Larsen C Ice Shelf Using Sentinel-1 SAR Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, February.
    5. F. Held & H. Cheng & R. L. Edwards & O. Tüysüz & K. Koç & D. Fleitmann, 2024. "Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the penultimate and last glacial period recorded in stalagmites from Türkiye," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Tao Li & Laura F. Robinson & Graeme A. MacGilchrist & Tianyu Chen & Joseph A. Stewart & Andrea Burke & Maoyu Wang & Gaojun Li & Jun Chen & James W. B. Rae, 2023. "Enhanced subglacial discharge from Antarctica during meltwater pulse 1A," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
    8. Hall, Darwin C. & Behl, Richard J., 2006. "Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 442-465, May.

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