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Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Andrijevic

    (IRI THESys, Humboldt University
    Climate Analytics)

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Raya Muttarak

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    School of International Development, University of East Anglia)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (IRI THESys, Humboldt University
    Climate Analytics
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits, including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find that under a ‘rocky road’ scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by weak governance in 2050, while under a ‘green road’ scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome over the same time frame. On the basis of pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Andrijevic & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Raya Muttarak & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2020. "Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 35-41, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:3:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0405-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Yiannis Moustakis & Tobias Nützel & Hao-Wei Wey & Wenkai Bao & Julia Pongratz, 2024. "Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Bram Govaerts & Christine Negra & Tania Carolina Camacho Villa & Xiomara Chavez Suarez & Anabell Diaz Espinosa & Simon Fonteyne & Andrea Gardeazabal & Gabriela Gonzalez & Ravi Gopal Singh & Victor Kom, 2021. "One CGIAR and the Integrated Agri-food Systems Initiative: From short-termism to transformation of the world’s food systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Bjoern Soergel & Elmar Kriegler & Isabelle Weindl & Sebastian Rauner & Alois Dirnaichner & Constantin Ruhe & Matthias Hofmann & Nico Bauer & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Marian Leimbac, 2021. "A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 656-664, August.
    5. Behrouz Pirouz & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Patrizia Piro, 2020. "Investigating a Serious Challenge in the Sustainable Development Process: Analysis of Confirmed cases of COVID-19 (New Type of Coronavirus) Through a Binary Classification Using Artificial Intelligenc," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Zhanna A. Mingaleva, 2020. "Institutional Features of International Financing for Climate Change Adaptation Programs," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 10-25, August.
    8. Sun, Jie & Zhou, P. & Wen, Wen, 2022. "Assessing the regional adaptive capacity to renewable portfolio standard policy in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anton Orlov & Michael Gregory Windisch & Inga Menke & Julia Pongratz & Felix Havermann & Wim Thiery & Fei Luo & Patrick v. Jeetze & J, 2022. "Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Luke J. Harrington & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2021. "Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Zhou, Dequn & Chen, Ting & Ding, Hao & Wang, Qunwei, 2024. "Tracking the provincial energy transition in China: A comprehensive index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

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