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Health and climate impacts of future United States land freight modelled with global-to-urban models

Author

Listed:
  • Liang Liu

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Taesung Hwang

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
    Asia Pacific School of Logistics, Inha University)

  • Sungwon Lee

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
    Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements)

  • Yanfeng Ouyang

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Bumsoo Lee

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Steven J. Smith

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Christopher W. Tessum

    (University of Washington)

  • Julian D. Marshall

    (University of Washington)

  • Fang Yan

    (Argonne National Laboratory)

  • Kathryn Daenzer

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Tami C. Bond

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

Driven by economic growth, globalization and e-commerce, freight per capita in the United States has been consistently increasing in recent decades. Projecting to 2050, we explore the emissions, and health and climate impacts of US freight truck and rail transport under various policy scenarios. We predict that, overall, air pollutant emissions and health impacts from the freight-truck-rail system will be greatly reduced from 2010 to 2030, while long-term climate forcing will continue to increase if petroleum is the fuel source. A carbon tax could shift freight shipments from trucking to energy-efficient rail, providing the greatest reduction in long-term forcing among all policies (24%), whereas a policy enforcing truck fleet maintenance would cause the largest reduction in air pollutant emissions, offering the largest reduction in mortalities (36%). Increasing urban compactness could reduce freight activity but increase population exposure per unit emission, offering slight health benefits over the current urban sprawl trend (13%).

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Liu & Taesung Hwang & Sungwon Lee & Yanfeng Ouyang & Bumsoo Lee & Steven J. Smith & Christopher W. Tessum & Julian D. Marshall & Fang Yan & Kathryn Daenzer & Tami C. Bond, 2019. "Health and climate impacts of future United States land freight modelled with global-to-urban models," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 105-112, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0224-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0224-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Hafiz Anwar Ullah & Ünel, Burçin & Dvorkin, Yury, 2023. "Electricity Tariff Design via Lens of Energy Justice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Pan, Shuai & Fulton, Lewis M. & Roy, Anirban & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2021. "Shared use of electric autonomous vehicles: Air quality and health impacts of future mobility in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Pan, Shuai & Yu, Wendi & Fulton, Lewis M. & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2023. "Impacts of the large-scale use of passenger electric vehicles on public health in 30 US. metropolitan areas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Liu, Ke & Fu, Qiang, 2024. "How does geopolitical risk affect international freight?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Carlos Bueno-Suárez & Daniel Coq-Huelva, 2020. "Sustaining What Is Unsustainable: A Review of Urban Sprawl and Urban Socio-Environmental Policies in North America and Western Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-36, May.
    6. Anna Pernestål & Albin Engholm & Marie Bemler & Gyözö Gidofalvi, 2020. "How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? Scenarios Tested in Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Kaza, Nikhil, 2020. "Urban form and transportation energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Shuai Pan & Jia Jung & Zitian Li & Xuewei Hou & Anirban Roy & Yunsoo Choi & H. Oliver Gao, 2020. "Air Quality Implications of COVID-19 in California," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-14, August.

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