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Climate change may alter human physical activity patterns

Author

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  • Nick Obradovich

    (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
    Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139-4307, USA)

  • James H. Fowler

    (University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.
    University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.)

Abstract

Regular physical activity supports healthy human functioning1–3. Might climate change—by modifying the environmental determinants of human physical activity—alter exercise rates in the future4? Here we conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between meteorological conditions, physical activity and future climate change. Using data on reported participation in recreational physical activity from over 1.9 million US survey respondents between 2002 and 2012, coupled with daily meteorological data, we show that both cold and acutely hot temperatures, as well as precipitation days, reduce physical activity. We combine our historical estimates with output from 21 climate models and project the possible physical activity effects of future climatic changes by 2050 and 2099. Our projection indicates that warming over the course of this century may increase net recreational physical activity in the United States. Activity may increase most during the winter in northern states and decline most during the summer in southern states.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Obradovich & James H. Fowler, 2017. "Climate change may alter human physical activity patterns," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(5), pages 1-7, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:1:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1038_s41562-017-0097
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-017-0097
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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Christian, Hayley & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke & Zubrick, Stephen R. & Mitrou, Francis, 2021. "The impact of weather on time allocation to physical activity and sleep of child-parent dyads," GLO Discussion Paper Series 886, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Kelton Minor & Esteban Moro & Nick Obradovich, 2023. "Adverse weather amplifies social media activity," Papers 2302.08456, arXiv.org.
    3. Ingvild Almås & Maximilian Auffhammer & Tessa Bold & Ian Bolliger & Aluma Dembo & Solomon M. Hsiang & Shuhei Kitamura & Edward Miguel & Robert Pickmans, 2019. "Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making under Thermal Stress," NBER Working Papers 25785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2019. "Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Chan, Nathan & Wichman, Casey, 2017. "The Effects of Climate on Leisure Demand: Evidence from North America," RFF Working Paper Series 17-20, Resources for the Future.
    6. George Cunningham & Brian P. McCullough & Shelby Hohensee, 2020. "Physical activity and climate change attitudes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 61-74, March.
    7. Hongjun Yu & Yiling Song & Yangyang Wang & Xiaoxin Wang & Haoxuan Li & Xiaolu Feng & Miao Yu, 2023. "The Impact of Temperature on 24-Hour Movement Behaviors among Chinese Freshmen Students," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Pan He & Pengfei Liu & Yueming (Lucy) Qiu & Lufan Liu, 2022. "The weather affects air conditioner purchases to fill the energy efficiency gap," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Appau, Samuelson & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Farrell, Lisa, 2022. "Temperature shocks and gambling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Hailemariam, Abebe & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Appau, Samuelson, 2023. "Temperature, health and wellbeing in Australia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Nathan W. Chan & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Climate Change and Recreation: Evidence from North American Cycling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 119-151, May.
    12. Till Baldenius & Nicolas Koch & Hannah Klauber & Nadja Klein, 2023. "Heat increases experienced racial segregation in the United States," Papers 2306.13772, arXiv.org.
    13. Kaixing Huang & Qianqian Hong, 2024. "The impact of global warming on obesity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-32, September.
    14. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2023. "Global variation in the optimal temperature for recreational outdoor activity," SocArXiv dwye8, Center for Open Science.
    15. Timothy Gustavo Cavazzotto & Enio Ricardo Vaz Ronque & Edgar Ramos Vieira & Marcos Roberto Queiroga & Helio Serassuelo Junior, 2020. "Social-Ecological Correlates of Regular Leisure-Time Physical Activity Practice among Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-15, May.
    16. Makridis, Christos A. & Schloetzer, Jason D., 2023. "Extreme local temperatures lower expressed sentiment about U.S. economic conditions with implications for the stock returns of local firms," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    17. Ha Trong Nguyen & Huong Thu Le & Luke B Connelly, 2021. "Weather and children's time allocation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1559-1579, July.
    18. Siganos, Antonios, 2024. "Climate theory & managerial decisions on cross-border mergers," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1).
    19. Felipe González & Magdalena Larreboure, 2021. "The Impact of the Women’s March on the U.S. House Election," Documentos de Trabajo 560, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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