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The idiosyncratic nature of confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Joaquin Navajas

    (University College London
    Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Chandni Hindocha

    (University College London
    University College London)

  • Hebah Foda

    (University College London)

  • Mehdi Keramati

    (University College London)

  • Peter E. Latham

    (University College London)

  • Bahador Bahrami

    (University College London)

Abstract

Confidence is the ‘feeling of knowing’ that accompanies decision-making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task in which subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquin Navajas & Chandni Hindocha & Hebah Foda & Mehdi Keramati & Peter E. Latham & Bahador Bahrami, 2017. "The idiosyncratic nature of confidence," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(11), pages 810-818, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:1:y:2017:i:11:d:10.1038_s41562-017-0215-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-017-0215-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Lejarraga, Tomás & Lejarraga, José, 2020. "Confidence and the description–experience distinction," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 201-212.
    2. Marine Hainguerlot & Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud & Vincent de Gardelle, 2023. "How Overconfidence Bias Influences Suboptimality in Perceptual Decision Making," Post-Print hal-04197403, HAL.
    3. Micha Heilbron & Florent Meyniel, 2019. "Confidence resets reveal hierarchical adaptive learning in humans," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Manuel Rausch & Michael Zehetleitner, 2019. "The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Florent Meyniel, 2020. "Brain dynamics for confidence-weighted learning," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-27, June.
    6. Uri Hertz & Bahador Bahrami & Mehdi Keramati, 2018. "Stochastic satisficing account of confidence in uncertain value-based decisions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    7. William T Adler & Wei Ji Ma, 2018. "Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian accounts of human confidence reports," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-34, November.

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