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A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

Author

Listed:
  • M. K. Roxy

    (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

  • Subimal Ghosh

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

  • Amey Pathak

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

  • R. Athulya

    (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
    Cochin University of Science and Technology)

  • Milind Mujumdar

    (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

  • Raghu Murtugudde

    (University of Maryland)

  • Pascal Terray

    (Sorbonne Universites (UPMC, Univ. Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN
    IISc-IITM-NIO–IRD Joint International Laboratory, IITM)

  • M. Rajeevan

    (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
    Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India)

Abstract

Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950–2015. The rise in these events is due to an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea, driving surges of moisture supply, leading to extreme rainfall episodes across the entire central subcontinent. The homogeneity of these severe weather events and their association with the ocean temperatures underscores the potential predictability of these events by two-to-three weeks, which offers hope in mitigating their catastrophic impact on life, agriculture and property.

Suggested Citation

  • M. K. Roxy & Subimal Ghosh & Amey Pathak & R. Athulya & Milind Mujumdar & Raghu Murtugudde & Pascal Terray & M. Rajeevan, 2017. "A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00744-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Vittal Hari & Subimal Ghosh & Wei Zhang & Rohini Kumar, 2022. "Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Avashia, Vidhee & Garg, Amit, 2020. "Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Raj, Renjith & Sofi, Arfat Ahmad, 2023. "Does climate change leads to severe household-level vulnerability? Evidence from the Western Ghats of Kerala, India," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Beyer, Robert C. M. & Narayanan, Abhinav & Thakur, Gogol Mitra, 2022. "Natural Disasters and Economic Dynamics: Evidence from the Kerala Floods," Working Papers 22/383, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Manabendra Saharia & Avish Jain & Ronit Raj Baishya & Saagar Haobam & O. P. Sreejith & D. S. Pai & Arezoo Rafieeinasab, 2021. "India flood inventory: creation of a multi-source national geospatial database to facilitate comprehensive flood research," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 619-633, August.
    6. Hou, Yudong & Xiao, Caiyun & Fu, Wenyu & Ge, Zhaolong & Jia, Yunzhong, 2024. "Dissolution-induced pore-matrix-fracture characteristics evolution due to supercritical CO2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    7. Aradhana Yaduvanshi & Ashwini Kulkarni & Ramkumar Bendapudi & Kaushik Haldar, 2020. "Observed changes in extreme rain indices in semiarid and humid regions of Godavari basin, India: risks and opportunities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 685-711, August.
    8. Tejasvi Chauhan & Anjana Devanand & Mathew Koll Roxy & Karumuri Ashok & Subimal Ghosh, 2023. "River interlinking alters land-atmosphere feedback and changes the Indian summer monsoon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Goyal, Manish Kumar & Gupta, Anil Kumar & Jha, Srinidhi & Rakkasagi, Shivukumar & Jain, Vijay, 2022. "Climate change impact on precipitation extremes over Indian cities: Non-stationary analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. repec:ags:aaea22:335442 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jinxiu Liu & Weihao Shen & Yaqian He, 2021. "Effects of Cropland Expansion on Temperature Extremes in Western India from 1982 to 2015," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    12. Amit Kumar & Abhilash Singh & Kumar Gaurav, 2023. "Assessing the synergic effect of land use and climate change on the upper Betwa River catchment in Central India under present, past, and future climate scenarios," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 5163-5184, June.
    13. P. Suneetha & Zedek, M. D. & Ramalingeswara Rao, S. & Naga Lakshmi, K. & Latha. P. & O. S. R. U. Bhanu Kumar, 2018. "Study of Moisture Budget of Meteorological Droughts over Indian Region," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 221-221, September.
    14. Syed Abu Shoaib & Mohammad Zaved Kaiser Khan & Nahid Sultana & Taufique H. Mahmood, 2021. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Food Security Modeling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.

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