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Observed changes in extreme rain indices in semiarid and humid regions of Godavari basin, India: risks and opportunities

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  • Aradhana Yaduvanshi

    (Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR))

  • Ashwini Kulkarni

    (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

  • Ramkumar Bendapudi

    (Independent Researcher)

  • Kaushik Haldar

    (Ranchi University)

Abstract

The present study examines the spatial and temporal changes in extreme rainfall events (EREs) across the Godavari river basin to develop adaptation strategies for vulnerable regions by understanding opportunities and risks. Indices such as consecutive dry and wet days, daily intensity, one-day highest precipitation, days with rainfall > 10 mm and 20 mm have been computed over the Godavari basin for the time period 1901–2015, and changes are compared between the two time periods 1901–1976 and 1977–2015. This study examines long-term trends on monthly and seasonal scales and climatological characteristics of EREs to understand the observed spatiotemporal changes in EREs. Analysis of EREs in the monsoon months further indicates significant trends over both traditionally “high-rainfall regions” (Humid) and “low-rainfall regions” (semiarid). In low-rainfall region, an increase in mean and coefficient of variability of annual rainfall has been identified during 1977–2015 as compared to pre-1977 period. It is also found that the month of September experienced statistically significant increase in frequency and intensity of all wet extreme rain indices during the period 1977–2015. Extremes in high- and low-rainfall regions show significant increase during 1977–2015 as compared to 1901–1976. Century scale analysis of extreme events with reference to regional level changes would help in looking at the grass root reality for the estimation of water budget as well as for developing region-specific adaptation measures and crop contingency plans. These findings would feed into state action plan for climate change to take appropriate measures to combat changing and rapidly occurring EREs in different climate zones of Godavari basin. Graphic abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Aradhana Yaduvanshi & Ashwini Kulkarni & Ramkumar Bendapudi & Kaushik Haldar, 2020. "Observed changes in extreme rain indices in semiarid and humid regions of Godavari basin, India: risks and opportunities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 685-711, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04006-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04006-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Winsemius, Hessel C. & Jongman, Brenden & Veldkamp, Ted I.E. & Hallegatte, Stephane & Bangalore, Mook & Ward, Philip J., 2018. "Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty: assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 328-348, June.
    2. Subimal Ghosh & Debasish Das & Shih-Chieh Kao & Auroop R. Ganguly, 2012. "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 86-91, February.
    3. M. K. Roxy & Subimal Ghosh & Amey Pathak & R. Athulya & Milind Mujumdar & Raghu Murtugudde & Pascal Terray & M. Rajeevan, 2017. "A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.
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