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Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States

Author

Listed:
  • John C. Fyfe

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Chris Derksen

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Lawrence Mudryk

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Gregory M. Flato

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Benjamin D. Santer

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Neil C. Swart

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Noah P. Molotch

    (Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado
    Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • Xuebin Zhang

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Hui Wan

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Vivek K. Arora

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • John Scinocca

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Yanjun Jiao

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

Abstract

Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10–20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the region’s snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60% is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Fyfe & Chris Derksen & Lawrence Mudryk & Gregory M. Flato & Benjamin D. Santer & Neil C. Swart & Noah P. Molotch & Xuebin Zhang & Hui Wan & Vivek K. Arora & John Scinocca & Yanjun Jiao, 2017. "Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms14996
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14996
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajesh R. Shrestha & Barrie R. Bonsal & James M. Bonnyman & Alex J. Cannon & Mohammad Reza Najafi, 2021. "Heterogeneous snowpack response and snow drought occurrence across river basins of northwestern North America under 1.0°C to 4.0°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
    3. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Hrozencik, Aaron & Gardner, Grant & Potter, Nicholas & Wallander, Steven, 2023. "Irrigation Organizations: Groundwater Management," USDA Miscellaneous 335424, United States Department of Agriculture.
    5. Dae II Jeong & Alex J. Cannon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Influences of atmospheric blocking on North American summer heatwaves in a changing climate: a comparison of two Canadian Earth system model large ensembles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Dae Il Jeong & Alex J. Cannon & Robert J. Morris, 2020. "Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 821-835, September.
    7. Geeta G. Persad & Daniel L. Swain & Claire Kouba & J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, 2020. "Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1493-1513, October.
    8. M. Mortezapour & B. Menounos & P. L. Jackson & A. R. Erler, 2022. "Future Snow Changes over the Columbia Mountains, Canada, using a Distributed Snow Model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-24, May.

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