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More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

Author

Listed:
  • Zhe Feng

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • L. Ruby Leung

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Samson Hagos

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Robert A. Houze

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Casey D. Burleyson

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Karthik Balaguru

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Abstract

The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhe Feng & L. Ruby Leung & Samson Hagos & Robert A. Houze & Casey D. Burleyson & Karthik Balaguru, 2016. "More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms13429
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13429
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    Cited by:

    1. Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P. & Baffaut, Claire, 2023. "Quantifying links between topsoil depth, plant water use, and yield in a rainfed maize field in the U. S. Midwest," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    2. Alex M. Haberlie & Brendan Wallace & Walker S. Ashley & Vittorio A. Gensini & Allison C. Michaelis, 2024. "Mesoscale convective system activity in the United States under intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Magdalena Cornejo & Nicolás Merener & Ezequiel Merovich, 2024. "Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices," Working Papers 303, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Chenfu Huang & Eric Anderson & Yi Liu & Gangfeng Ma & Greg Mann & Pengfei Xue, 2022. "Evaluating essential processes and forecast requirements for meteotsunami-induced coastal flooding," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1693-1718, February.
    5. Leila M. V. Carvalho, 2020. "Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.

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