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Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Author

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  • T.A.M. Pugh

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
    School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham)

  • C. Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • J. Elliott

    (University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute)

  • D. Deryng

    (University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute
    Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • C. Folberth

    (Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Ludwig Maximilian University)

  • S. Olin

    (Lund University)

  • E. Schmid

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • A. Arneth

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Suggested Citation

  • T.A.M. Pugh & C. Müller & J. Elliott & D. Deryng & C. Folberth & S. Olin & E. Schmid & A. Arneth, 2016. "Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms12608
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12608
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    Cited by:

    1. Ren Yang & Xiuli Luo & Qian Xu & Xin Zhang & Jiapei Wu, 2021. "Measuring the Impact of the Multiple Cropping Index of Cultivated Land during Continuous and Rapid Rise of Urbanization in China: A Study from 2000 to 2015," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Guo, Shibo & Zhang, Zhentao & Guo, Erjing & Fu, Zhenzhen & Gong, Jingjin & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2022. "Historical and projected impacts of climate change and technology on soybean yield in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb & Alexander Loladze & Kai Sonder & Gideon Kruseman & Felix San Vicente, 2019. "Threats of Tar Spot Complex disease of maize in the United States of America and its global consequences," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 281-300, February.
    4. Mary Ollenburger & Page Kyle & Xin Zhang, 2022. "Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(5), pages 1177-1190, October.
    5. Shen, Ge & Yu, Qiangyi & Zhou, Qingbo & Wang, Cong & Wu, Wenbin, 2023. "From multiple cropping frequency to multiple cropping system: A new perspective for the characterization of cropland use intensity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Tassadit Kourat & Dalila Smadhi & Brahim Mouhouche & Nerdjes Gourari & M. G. Mostofa Amin & Christopher Robin Bryant, 2021. "Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2175-2203, July.
    7. van Zelm, Rosalie & van der Velde, Marijn & Balkovic, Juraj & Čengić, Mirza & Elshout, Pieter M.F. & Koellner, Thomas & Núñez, Montserrat & Obersteiner, Michael & Schmid, Erwin & Huijbregts, Mark A.J., 2018. "Spatially explicit life cycle impact assessment for soil erosion from global crop production," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(PB), pages 220-227.
    8. Hory Chikez & Dirk Maier & Steve Sonka, 2021. "Mango Postharvest Technologies: An Observational Study of the Yieldwise Initiative in Kenya," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    9. Xiang, Mingtao & Yu, Qiangyi & Li, Yan & Shi, Zhou & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "Increasing multiple cropping for land use intensification: The role of crop choice," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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