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Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Øivind Hodnebrog

    (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO))

  • Gunnar Myhre

    (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO))

  • Piers M. Forster

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

  • Jana Sillmann

    (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO))

  • Bjørn H. Samset

    (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO))

Abstract

Observations indicate a precipitation decline over large parts of southern Africa since the 1950s. Concurrently, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased due to anthropogenic activities. Here we show that local black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions from biomass burning activities are a main cause of the observed decline in southern African dry season precipitation over the last century. Near the main biomass burning regions, global and regional modelling indicates precipitation decreases of 20–30%, with large spatial variability. Increasing global CO2 concentrations further contribute to precipitation reductions, somewhat less in magnitude but covering a larger area. Whereas precipitation changes from increased CO2 are driven by large-scale circulation changes, the increase in biomass burning aerosols causes local drying of the atmosphere. This study illustrates that reducing local biomass burning aerosol emissions may be a useful way to mitigate reduced rainfall in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Øivind Hodnebrog & Gunnar Myhre & Piers M. Forster & Jana Sillmann & Bjørn H. Samset, 2016. "Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms11236
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11236
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    Cited by:

    1. Suman Moparthy & Dominique Carrer & Xavier Ceamanos, 2019. "Can We Detect the Brownness or Greenness of the Congo Rainforest Using Satellite-Derived Surface Albedo? A Study on the Role of Aerosol Uncertainties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Yan Guo & Wei Tang & Guanghua Hou & Fei Pan & Yubo Wang & Wei Wang, 2021. "Research on Precipitation Forecast Based on LSTM–CP Combined Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-24, October.

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