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Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Jamie T. Griffin

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London)

  • Neil M. Ferguson

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London)

  • Azra C. Ghani

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London)

Abstract

Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations in health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and loss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmission intensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we then produce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252 (95% credible interval: 171–353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that active case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12–86%) of these cases would be observed through passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinical malaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% at low transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to be reconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamie T. Griffin & Neil M. Ferguson & Azra C. Ghani, 2014. "Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms4136
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4136
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    Cited by:

    1. Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa & Ouifki, Rachid & Banasiak, Jacek, 2021. "Mathematical analysis of the impact of transmission-blocking drugs on the population dynamics of malaria," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 400(C).
    2. Abraham Degarege & Kristopher Fennie & Dawit Degarege & Shasank Chennupati & Purnima Madhivanan, 2019. "Improving socioeconomic status may reduce the burden of malaria in sub Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Theresa Reiker & Monica Golumbeanu & Andrew Shattock & Lydia Burgert & Thomas A. Smith & Sarah Filippi & Ewan Cameron & Melissa A. Penny, 2021. "Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Lucy C. Okell & Titus K. Kwambai & Aggrey Dhabangi & Carole Khairallah & Thandile Nkosi-Gondwe & Peter Winskill & Robert Opoka & Andria Mousa & Melf-Jakob Kühl & Tim C. D. Lucas & Joseph D. Challenger, 2023. "Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. H. Juliette T. Unwin & Ellie Sherrard-Smith & Thomas S. Churcher & Azra C. Ghani, 2023. "Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Ellie Sherrard-Smith & Corine Ngufor & Antoine Sanou & Moussa W. Guelbeogo & Raphael N’Guessan & Eldo Elobolobo & Francisco Saute & Kenyssony Varela & Carlos J. Chaccour & Rose Zulliger & Joseph Wagma, 2022. "Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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