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Non-linear elasticity, earthquake triggering and seasonal hydrological forcing along the Irpinia fault, Southern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Stefania Tarantino

    (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)

  • Piero Poli

    (University of Padova)

  • Nicola D’Agostino

    (Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia)

  • Maurizio Vassallo

    (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)

  • Gaetano Festa

    (University of Napoli)

  • Gerardo Ventafridda

    (Acquedotto Pugliese S.p.A)

  • Aldo Zollo

    (University of Napoli)

Abstract

Pump-probe experiments investigate the strain sensitivity of crustal elastic properties, showing nonlinear variations during the strain cycle. In the laboratory, pre-seismic reductions in seismic velocity indicate that asperity contacts within the fault zone begin to fail before the macroscopic frictional sliding. The recognition of such effects in natural seismic-cycles has been challenging. Here we exploit seasonal hydrological strains, performing a natural analogue to a quasi-static laboratory pump-probe experiment to investigate the nonlinear strain sensitivity of crustal rocks and its role in seismic failure along the tectonically-active Irpinia Fault System (Southern Italy). By comparing 14-years-long series of spring discharge, strain, seismic velocity variations and earthquakes rate, we find that seismicity peaks during maximum hydrological forcing and minimum seismic velocity. Seasonal strains of ~10−6 are required for both earthquake triggering and significant nonlinearity effects arising from modulus reduction. We suggest that, for faults in a critical state, cyclical softening may lead to failure and seasonal seismicity.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefania Tarantino & Piero Poli & Nicola D’Agostino & Maurizio Vassallo & Gaetano Festa & Gerardo Ventafridda & Aldo Zollo, 2024. "Non-linear elasticity, earthquake triggering and seasonal hydrological forcing along the Irpinia fault, Southern Italy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54094-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54094-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul A. Johnson & Xiaoping Jia, 2005. "Nonlinear dynamics, granular media and dynamic earthquake triggering," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7060), pages 871-874, October.
    2. Timothy J. Craig & Kristel Chanard & Eric Calais, 2017. "Hydrologically-driven crustal stresses and seismicity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Joan Gomberg & Paul Johnson, 2005. "Dynamic triggering of earthquakes," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7060), pages 830-830, October.
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