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The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments

Author

Listed:
  • Penelope A. Hancock

    (Imperial College London)

  • Ace North

    (University of Oxford)

  • Adrian W. Leach

    (Imperial College London)

  • Peter Winskill

    (Imperial College London)

  • Azra C. Ghani

    (Imperial College London)

  • H. Charles J. Godfray

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Austin Burt

    (Imperial College London)

  • John D. Mumford

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Gene drives are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, their impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of gene drives that causes vector population suppression. We simulate gene drive releases in sixteen ~ 12,000 km2 areas of west Africa that span variation in vector ecology and malaria prevalence, and estimate reductions in vector abundance, malaria prevalence and clinical cases. Average reductions in vector abundance ranged from 71.6–98.4% across areas, while impacts on malaria depended strongly on which vector species were targeted. When other new interventions including RTS,S vaccination and pyrethroid-PBO bednets were in place, at least 60% more clinical cases were averted when gene drives were added, demonstrating the benefits of integrated interventions. Our results show that different strategies for gene drive implementation may be required across different African settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Penelope A. Hancock & Ace North & Adrian W. Leach & Peter Winskill & Azra C. Ghani & H. Charles J. Godfray & Austin Burt & John D. Mumford, 2024. "The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53065-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53065-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris S. Clarkson & David Weetman & John Essandoh & Alexander E. Yawson & Gareth Maslen & Magnus Manske & Stuart G. Field & Mark Webster & Tiago Antão & Bronwyn MacInnis & Dominic Kwiatkowski & Martin, 2014. "Adaptive introgression between Anopheles sibling species eliminates a major genomic island but not reproductive isolation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Mustapha Immurana & Micheal Kofi Boachie & Desmond Klu & Maxwell Ayindenaba Dalaba & Alfred Kwesi Manyeh & Robert Kaba Alhassan, 2022. "Determinants of willingness to accept child vaccination against malaria in Ghana," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 1439-1453, May.
    3. Andrew Hammond & Paola Pollegioni & Tania Persampieri & Ace North & Roxana Minuz & Alessandro Trusso & Alessandro Bucci & Kyros Kyrou & Ioanna Morianou & Alekos Simoni & Tony Nolan & Ruth Müller & And, 2021. "Gene-drive suppression of mosquito populations in large cages as a bridge between lab and field," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Amelia Bertozzi-Villa & Caitlin A. Bever & Hannah Koenker & Daniel J. Weiss & Camilo Vargas-Ruiz & Anita K. Nandi & Harry S. Gibson & Joseph Harris & Katherine E. Battle & Susan F. Rumisha & Suzanne K, 2021. "Maps and metrics of insecticide-treated net access, use, and nets-per-capita in Africa from 2000-2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Beaghton, P.J. & Burt, Austin, 2022. "Gene drives and population persistence vs elimination: The impact of spatial structure and inbreeding at low density," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 109-125.
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