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The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ward

    (Analytics and Surveillance)

  • Martyn Fyles

    (Analytics and Surveillance)

  • Alex Glaser

    (Analytics and Surveillance)

  • Robert S. Paton

    (Analytics and Surveillance)

  • William Ferguson

    (Analytics and Surveillance)

  • Christopher E. Overton

    (Analytics and Surveillance
    Department of Mathematical Sciences)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led to 231,841 deaths and 940,243 hospitalisations in England, by the end of March 2023. This paper calculates the real-time infection hospitalisation risk (IHR) and infection fatality risk (IFR) using the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus Infection Survey (ONS CIS) and the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission Survey between November 2020 to March 2023. The IHR and the IFR in England peaked in January 2021 at 3.39% (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 2.79, 3.97) and 0.97% (95% CrI: 0.62, 1.36), respectively. After this time, there was a rapid decline in the severity from infection, with the lowest estimated IHR of 0.32% (95% CrI: 0.27, 0.39) in December 2022 and IFR of 0.06% (95% CrI: 0.04, 0.08) in April 2022. We found infection severity to vary more markedly between regions early in the pandemic however, the absolute heterogeneity has since reduced. The risk from infection of SARS-CoV-2 has changed substantially throughout the COVID-19 pandemic with a decline of 86.03% (80.86, 89.35) and 89.67% (80.18, 93.93) in the IHR and IFR, respectively, since early 2021. From April 2022 until March 2023, the end of the ONS CIS study, we found fluctuating patterns in the severity of infection with the resumption of more normative mixing, resurgent epidemic waves, patterns of waning immunity, and emerging variants that have shown signs of convergent evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ward & Martyn Fyles & Alex Glaser & Robert S. Paton & William Ferguson & Christopher E. Overton, 2024. "The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47199-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47199-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Ward & Alexander Johnsen, 2021. "Understanding an evolving pandemic: An analysis of the clinical time delay distributions of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Yunlong Cao & Fanchong Jian & Jing Wang & Yuanling Yu & Weiliang Song & Ayijiang Yisimayi & Jing Wang & Ran An & Xiaosu Chen & Na Zhang & Yao Wang & Peng Wang & Lijuan Zhao & Haiyan Sun & Lingling Yu , 2023. "Imprinted SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity induces convergent Omicron RBD evolution," Nature, Nature, vol. 614(7948), pages 521-529, February.
    3. Christina J. Atchison & Bethan Davies & Emily Cooper & Adam Lound & Matthew Whitaker & Adam Hampshire & Adriana Azor & Christl A. Donnelly & Marc Chadeau-Hyam & Graham S. Cooke & Helen Ward & Paul Ell, 2023. "Long-term health impacts of COVID-19 among 242,712 adults in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Nicholas G. Reich & Justin Lessler & Derek A. T. Cummings & Ron Brookmeyer, 2012. "Estimating Absolute and Relative Case Fatality Ratios from Infectious Disease Surveillance Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 598-606, June.
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