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Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony C. Jones

    (University of Exeter
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • James M. Haywood

    (University of Exeter
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Nick Dunstone

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Matthew K. Hawcroft

    (University of Exeter)

  • Kevin I. Hodges

    (University of Reading)

  • Andy Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

Solar geoengineering refers to a range of proposed methods for counteracting global warming by artificially reducing sunlight at Earth’s surface. The most widely known solar geoengineering proposal is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which has impacts analogous to those from volcanic eruptions. Observations following major volcanic eruptions indicate that aerosol enhancements confined to a single hemisphere effectively modulate North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the following years. Here we investigate the effects of both single-hemisphere and global SAI scenarios on North Atlantic TC activity using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and various TC identification methods. We show that a robust result from all of the methods is that SAI applied to the southern hemisphere would enhance TC frequency relative to a global SAI application, and vice versa for SAI in the northern hemisphere. Our results reemphasise concerns regarding regional geoengineering and should motivate policymakers to regulate large-scale unilateral geoengineering deployments.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony C. Jones & James M. Haywood & Nick Dunstone & Kerry Emanuel & Matthew K. Hawcroft & Kevin I. Hodges & Andy Jones, 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-01606-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Marilou Jobin & Michael Siegrist, 2020. "Support for the Deployment of Climate Engineering: A Comparison of Ten Different Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1058-1078, May.
    2. Jian Cao & Haikun Zhao & Bin Wang & Liguang Wu, 2021. "Hemisphere-asymmetric tropical cyclones response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Joshua B. Horton & Penehuro Lefale & David Keith, 2021. "Parametric Insurance for Solar Geoengineering: Insights from the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 97-107, April.
    4. Wenchang Yang & Elizabeth Wallace & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Jeffrey P. Donnelly & Julien Emile-Geay & Gregory J. Hakim & Larry W. Horowitz & Richard M. Sullivan & Robert Tardif & Peter J. Hengstum & Tyler, 2024. "Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Dipu, Sudhakar & Quaas, Johannes & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Mülmenstädt, Johannes & Boucher, Olivier, 2021. "Substantial Climate Response outside the Target Area in an Idealized Experiment of Regional Radiation Management," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 240193, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Jutta Wieding & Jessica Stubenrauch & Felix Ekardt, 2020. "Human Rights and Precautionary Principle: Limits to Geoengineering, SRM, and IPCC Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-23, October.

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