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A stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods

Author

Listed:
  • Ruhua Zhang

    (Fudan University)

  • Wen Zhou

    (Fudan University
    Polar Research Institute of China)

  • Wenshou Tian

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Yue Zhang

    (Fudan University)

  • Junxia Zhang

    (Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory of Gansu Province)

  • Jiali Luo

    (Lanzhou University)

Abstract

East Asian floods and droughts in summer show a typical dipole pattern with a north-south oscillation centered near 30°N, called the southern drought–northern flood (SDNF) pattern, which has caused significant economic losses and casualties in the past three decades. However, effective explanations and predictions are still challenging, making suitable disaster prevention more difficult. Here, we find that a key predictor of this dipole pattern is the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, tropical winds above 10 km). The QBO can modulate precipitation in East Asia, contributing the largest explained variation of this dipole pattern. A QBO-included statistical model can effectively predict summer floods and droughts at least three months in advance and explain at least 75.8% of precipitation variation. More than 30% of the SDNF pattern is attributed to the QBO in July-August 2020 and 2021. This result suggests a good prospect for using the tropical mid- to upper atmosphere in seasonal forecasts for summer.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruhua Zhang & Wen Zhou & Wenshou Tian & Yue Zhang & Junxia Zhang & Jiali Luo, 2024. "A stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44445-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44445-y
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    1. Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Mingxuan Wu & Hailong Wang & Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Xin Hao & Jiandong Li & Lei Chen & Huimin Li & Liangying Zeng & Yang Zhou & Pinya Wang & Hong Liao & Jing Wang & Zhen, 2022. "Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Mingxuan Wu & Hailong Wang & Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Xin Hao & Jiandong Li & Lei Chen & Huimin Li & Liangying Zeng & Yang Zhou & Pinya Wang & Hong Liao & Jing Wang & Zhen, 2022. "Publisher Correction: Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-1, December.
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