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Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Yin

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Ya Gao

    (Fudan University)

  • Renjie Chen

    (Fudan University)

  • Wei Liu

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Cheng He

    (Fudan University)

  • Junwei Hao

    (Capital Medical University
    National Center for Neurological Disorders)

  • Maigeng Zhou

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Haidong Kan

    (Fudan University)

Abstract

Limited knowledge exists regarding the ramifications of climate warming on death burden from neurodegenerative diseases. Here, we conducted a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study between 2013 and 2019 to investigate the effects of non-optimal temperatures on various neurodegenerative diseases and to predict the potential death burden under different climate change scenarios. Our findings reveal that both low and high temperatures are linked to increased risks of neurodegenerative diseases death. We project that heat-related neurodegenerative disease deaths would increase, while cold-related deaths would decrease. This is characterized by a steeper slope in the high-emission scenario, but a less pronounced trend in the scenarios involving mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we predict that the net changes in attributable death would increase after the mid-21st century, especially under the unrestricted-emission scenario. These results highlight the urgent need for effective climate and public health policies to address the growing challenges of neurodegenerative diseases associated with global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Yin & Ya Gao & Renjie Chen & Wei Liu & Cheng He & Junwei Hao & Maigeng Zhou & Haidong Kan, 2023. "Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44066-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44066-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jun Yang & Maigeng Zhou & Zhoupeng Ren & Mengmeng Li & Boguang Wang & De Li Liu & Chun-Quan Ou & Peng Yin & Jimin Sun & Shilu Tong & Hao Wang & Chunlin Zhang & Jinfeng Wang & Yuming Guo & Qiyong Liu, 2021. "Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
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