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True prevalence of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study

Author

Listed:
  • Claire E. Hastie

    (University of Glasgow)

  • David J. Lowe

    (University of Glasgow
    Queen Elizabeth University Hospital)

  • Andrew McAuley

    (Public Health Scotland, Meridian Court
    Glasgow Caledonian University)

  • Nicholas L. Mills

    (University of Edinburgh
    University of Edinburgh)

  • Andrew J. Winter

    (Sandyford Sexual Health Services, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde)

  • Corri Black

    (University of Aberdeen
    Public Health Directorate, NHS Grampian)

  • Janet T. Scott

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Catherine A. O’Donnell

    (University of Glasgow)

  • David N. Blane

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Susan Browne

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Tracy R. Ibbotson

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Jill P. Pell

    (University of Glasgow)

Abstract

Long-COVID prevalence estimates vary widely and should take account of symptoms that would have occurred anyway. Here we determine the prevalence of symptoms attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection, taking account of background rates and confounding, in a nationwide population cohort study of 198,096 Scottish adults. 98,666 (49.8%) had symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 99,430 (50.2%) were age-, sex-, and socioeconomically-matched and never-infected. While 41,775 (64.5%) reported at least one symptom 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection, this was also true of 34,600 (50.8%) of those never-infected. The crude prevalence of one or more symptom attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 13.8% (13.2%,14.3%), 12.8% (11.9%,13.6%), and 16.3% (14.4%,18.2%) at 6, 12, and 18 months respectively. Following adjustment for potential confounders, these figures were 6.6% (6.3%, 6.9%), 6.5% (6.0%, 6.9%) and 10.4% (9.1%, 11.6%) respectively. Long-COVID is characterised by a wide range of symptoms that, apart from altered taste and smell, are non-specific. Care should be taken in attributing symptoms to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire E. Hastie & David J. Lowe & Andrew McAuley & Nicholas L. Mills & Andrew J. Winter & Corri Black & Janet T. Scott & Catherine A. O’Donnell & David N. Blane & Susan Browne & Tracy R. Ibbotson & J, 2023. "True prevalence of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-6, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43661-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43661-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karin Magnusson & Doris Tove Kristoffersen & Andrea Dell’Isola & Ali Kiadaliri & Aleksandra Turkiewicz & Jos Runhaar & Sita Bierma-Zeinstra & Martin Englund & Per Minor Magnus & Jonas Minet Kinge, 2022. "Post-covid medical complaints following infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron vs Delta variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Min Du & Yirui Ma & Jie Deng & Min Liu & Jue Liu, 2022. "Comparison of Long COVID-19 Caused by Different SARS-CoV-2 Strains: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-15, November.
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