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Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Årthun

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Helene Asbjørnsen

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Léon Chafik

    (Stockholm University
    National Oceanography Centre)

  • Helen L. Johnson

    (University of Oxford)

  • Kjetil Våge

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

Abstract

The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas involves the transformation of warm Atlantic waters into cold, dense overflows. These overflow waters return to the North Atlantic and form the headwaters to the deep limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The Nordic Seas are thus a key component of the AMOC. However, little is known about the response of the overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas to future climate change. Here we show using global climate models that, in contrast to the North Atlantic, the simulated density-space overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas increases throughout most of the 21st century as a result of enhanced horizontal circulation and a strengthened zonal density gradient. The increased Nordic Seas overturning is furthermore manifested in the overturning circulation in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. A strengthened Nordic Seas overturning circulation could therefore be a stabilizing factor in the future AMOC.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Årthun & Helene Asbjørnsen & Léon Chafik & Helen L. Johnson & Kjetil Våge, 2023. "Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37846-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37846-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Lique & Matthew D. Thomas, 2018. "Latitudinal shift of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation source regions under a warming climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 1013-1020, November.
    2. G. W. K. Moore & K. Våge & I. A. Renfrew & R. S. Pickart, 2022. "Sea-ice retreat suggests re-organization of water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Marius Årthun & Tor Eldevik & Ellen Viste & Helge Drange & Tore Furevik & Helen L. Johnson & Noel S. Keenlyside, 2017. "Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Marius Årthun & Tor Eldevik & Ellen Viste & Helge Drange & Tore Furevik & Helen L. Johnson & Noel S. Keenlyside, 2017. "Erratum: Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-2, December.
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