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Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock

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Listed:
  • Marius Årthun
  • Bjarte Bogstad
  • Ute Daewel
  • Noel S Keenlyside
  • Anne Britt Sandø
  • Corinna Schrum
  • Geir Ottersen

Abstract

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957–2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Årthun & Bjarte Bogstad & Ute Daewel & Noel S Keenlyside & Anne Britt Sandø & Corinna Schrum & Geir Ottersen, 2018. "Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0206319
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louise A. Rutterford & Stephen D. Simpson & Simon Jennings & Mark P. Johnson & Julia L. Blanchard & Pieter-Jan Schön & David W. Sims & Jonathan Tinker & Martin J. Genner, 2015. "Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 569-573, June.
    2. Marius Årthun & Tor Eldevik & Ellen Viste & Helge Drange & Tore Furevik & Helen L. Johnson & Noel S. Keenlyside, 2017. "Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Maria Fossheim & Raul Primicerio & Edda Johannesen & Randi B. Ingvaldsen & Michaela M. Aschan & Andrey V. Dolgov, 2015. "Recent warming leads to a rapid borealization of fish communities in the Arctic," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 673-677, July.
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