IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-37314-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Peter J. Dodd

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Debebe Shaweno

    (Imperial College London)

  • Chu-Chang Ku

    (Imperial College London)

  • Philippe Glaziou

    (World Health Organization)

  • Carel Pretorius

    (Avenir Health)

  • Richard J. Hayes

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Peter MacPherson

    (University of Glasgow
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Ted Cohen

    (Yale School of Public Health)

  • Helen Ayles

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    University of Zambia)

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Dodd & Debebe Shaweno & Chu-Chang Ku & Philippe Glaziou & Carel Pretorius & Richard J. Hayes & Peter MacPherson & Ted Cohen & Helen Ayles, 2023. "Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37314-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37314-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gretchen A Stevens & Leontine Alkema & Robert E Black & J Ties Boerma & Gary S Collins & Majid Ezzati & John T Grove & Daniel R Hogan & Margaret C Hogan & Richard Horton & Joy E Lawn & Ana Marušić & C, 2016. "Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-8, June.
    2. Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher & Chris McCabe & Andrew Briggs & Ron Akehurst & Martin Buxton & John Brazier & Tony O'Hagan, 2005. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 339-347, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. E. Ades & Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher, 2006. "Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 373-381, April.
    2. Dongzhe Hong & Lei Si & Minghuan Jiang & Hui Shao & Wai-kit Ming & Yingnan Zhao & Yan Li & Lizheng Shi, 2019. "Cost Effectiveness of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) Inhibitors, Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) Receptor Agonists, and Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 (DPP-4) Inhibitors: A Systematic Review," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(6), pages 777-818, June.
    3. Pedram Sendi & Huldrych F Günthard & Mathew Simcock & Bruno Ledergerber & Jörg Schüpbach & Manuel Battegay & for the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 2007. "Cost-Effectiveness of Genotypic Antiretroviral Resistance Testing in HIV-Infected Patients with Treatment Failure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, January.
    4. Isaac Corro Ramos & Maureen P. M. H. Rutten-van Mölken & Maiwenn J. Al, 2013. "The Role of Value-of-Information Analysis in a Health Care Research Priority Setting," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 33(4), pages 472-489, May.
    5. McKenna, Claire & Chalabi, Zaid & Epstein, David & Claxton, Karl, 2010. "Budgetary policies and available actions: A generalisation of decision rules for allocation and research decisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 170-181, January.
    6. Mattias Ekman & Peter Lindgren & Carolin Miltenburger & Genevieve Meier & Julie Locklear & Mary Chatterton, 2012. "Cost Effectiveness of Quetiapine in Patients with Acute Bipolar Depression and in Maintenance Treatment after an Acute Depressive Episode," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(6), pages 513-530, June.
    7. Ong, Kanyin Liane & Stafford, Lauryn K. & McLaughlin, Susan A. & Boyko, Edward J. & Vollset, Stein Emil & Smith, Amanda E. & Dalton, Bronte E. & Duprey, Joe & Cruz, Jessica A. & Hagins, Hailey & Linds, 2023. "Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 287733, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Emma McIntosh, 2006. "Using Discrete Choice Experiments within a Cost-Benefit Analysis Framework," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 855-868, September.
    9. John Hutton, 2012. "‘Health Economics’ and the evolution of economic evaluation of health technologies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 13-18, January.
    10. Anna Heath & Petros Pechlivanoglou, 2022. "Prioritizing Research in an Era of Personalized Medicine: The Potential Value of Unexplained Heterogeneity," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 42(5), pages 649-660, July.
    11. Sofia Dias & Alex J. Sutton & Nicky J. Welton & A. E. Ades, 2013. "Evidence Synthesis for Decision Making 6," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 33(5), pages 671-678, July.
    12. Gabriela F. Gil & Jason A. Anderson & Aleksandr Aravkin & Kayleigh Bhangdia & Sinclair Carr & Xiaochen Dai & Luisa S. Flor & Simon I. Hay & Matthew J. Malloy & Susan A. McLaughlin & Erin C. Mullany & , 2024. "Health effects associated with chewing tobacco: a Burden of Proof study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Derek Headey & Marie Ruel, 2023. "Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Matthew R Behrend & María-Gloria Basáñez & Jonathan I D Hamley & Travis C Porco & Wilma A Stolk & Martin Walker & Sake J de Vlas & for the NTD Modelling Consortium, 2020. "Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, April.
    15. Alan Brennan & Stephen E. Chick & Ruth Davies, 2006. "A taxonomy of model structures for economic evaluation of health technologies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(12), pages 1295-1310, December.
    16. Miguel Antonio Sánchez-Cárdenas & Eduardo Garralda & Edgar Benítez & Natalia Arias-Casais & Danny van Steijn & Carlos Centeno, 2021. "Palliative Care Coverage across European National Health Systems: Proposal of a Synthetic Indicator," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-10, October.
    17. Laura Bojke & Karl Claxton & Stephen Palmer & Mark Sculpher, 2006. "Defining and characterising structural uncertainty in decision analytic models," Working Papers 009cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    18. Pachito, Daniela V. & Pega, Frank & Bakusic, Jelena & Boonen, Emma & Clays, Els & Descatha, Alexis & Delvaux, Ellen & Bacquer, Dirk De & Koskenvuo, Karoliina & Kröger, Hannes & Lambrechts, Marie-Clair, 2021. "The effect of exposure to long working hours on alcohol consumption, risky drinking and alcohol use disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 146.
    19. Sun-Young Kim & Louise B. Russell & Anushua Sinha, 2015. "Handling Parameter Uncertainty in Cost-Effectiveness Models Simply and Responsibly," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 35(5), pages 567-569, July.
    20. Nicky J. Welton & Jason J. Madan & Deborah M. Caldwell & Tim J. Peters & Anthony E. Ades, 2014. "Expected Value of Sample Information for Multi-Arm Cluster Randomized Trials with Binary Outcomes," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 34(3), pages 352-365, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37314-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.