IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-31821-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan E. Truchelut

    (WeatherTiger, LLC)

  • Philip J. Klotzbach

    (Colorado State University)

  • Erica M. Staehling

    (WeatherTiger, LLC
    Florida State University)

  • Kimberly M. Wood

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Daniel J. Halperin

    (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University)

  • Carl J. Schreck

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Eric S. Blake

    (National Hurricane Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Abstract

Numerous Atlantic basin tropical cyclones have recently developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, including several pre-season landfalls in the continental United States. Pre-season and early-season tropical cyclones disproportionately affect populated landmasses, often producing outsized precipitation impacts. Here we show a significant trend towards earlier onset of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin, with threshold dates of the first three percentiles of accumulated cyclone energy shifting earlier at a rate exceeding five days decade−1 since 1979, even correcting for biases in climatology due to increased detection of short-lived storms. Initial threshold dates of continental United States named storm landfalls have trended earlier by two days decade−1 since 1900. The trend towards additional pre-season and early-season activity is linked to spring thermodynamic conditions becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Genesis potential index value increases in the western Atlantic basin are primarily driven by warming ocean temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan E. Truchelut & Philip J. Klotzbach & Erica M. Staehling & Kimberly M. Wood & Daniel J. Halperin & Carl J. Schreck & Eric S. Blake, 2022. "Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31821-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31821-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31821-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-31821-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James B. Elsner & James P. Kossin & Thomas H. Jagger, 2008. "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7209), pages 92-95, September.
    2. Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Author Correction: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, December.
    3. Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Author Correction: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, December.
    4. Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Qian Ke & Jiangshan Yin & Jeremy D. Bricker & Nicholas Savage & Erasmo Buonomo & Qinghua Ye & Paul Visser & Guangtao Dong & Shuai Wang & Zhan Tian & Laixiang Sun & Ralf Toumi & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, 2021. "An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 671-703, October.
    4. Raphaelle G. Coulombe & Akhil Rao, 2023. "Fires and Local Labor Markets," Papers 2308.02739, arXiv.org.
    5. Yang Yang & David J. W. Piper & Min Xu & Jianhua Gao & Jianjun Jia & Alexandre Normandeau & Dongdong Chu & Liang Zhou & Ya Ping Wang & Shu Gao, 2022. "Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone activity enhanced by increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Kieran Bhatia & Alexander Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel Vecchi & Thomas Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Kevin Hodges & Keith Dixon & Benjamin Bronselaer & Carolyn Whitlock, 2022. "A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Phillip K. Agbesi & Rico Ruffino & Marko Hakovirta, 2023. "The development of sustainable electric vehicle business ecosystems," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-59, August.
    8. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Bucher, Axel & El Ghouch, Anouar & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2014. "Single-index quantile regression models for censored data," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2014001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    10. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    11. Makena Coffman & Ilan Noy, 2009. "In the Eye of the Storm: Coping with Future Natural Disasters in Hawaii," Working Papers 200904, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    12. De Backer, Mickael & El Ghouch, Anouar & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2017. "An Adapted Loss Function for Censored Quantile Regression," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2017003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    13. Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer, 2012. "A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 215-237, July.
    14. Anna C. Peterson & Himanshu Sharma & Arvind Kumar & Bruno M. Ghersi & Scott J. Emrich & Kurt J. Vandegrift & Amit Kapoor & Michael J. Blum, 2021. "Rodent Virus Diversity and Differentiation across Post-Katrina New Orleans," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Matteo Coronese & Francesco Lamperti & Francesca Chiaromonte & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "Natural Disaster Risk and the Distributional Dynamics of Damages," LEM Papers Series 2018/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Mohan, Preeya, 2017. "The economic impact of hurricanes on bananas: A case study of Dominica using synthetic control methods," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 21-30.
    17. Peng Ye & Xueying Zhang & Ge Shi & Shuhui Chen & Zhiwen Huang & Wei Tang, 2020. "TKRM: A Formal Knowledge Representation Method for Typhoon Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Mickaël De Backer & Anouar El Ghouch & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2020. "Linear censored quantile regression: A novel minimum‐distance approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1275-1306, December.
    19. A. Deo & D. Ganer & G. Nair, 2011. "Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 771-786, November.
    20. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey," Working Papers 200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31821-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.