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Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Ian J. Rickard

    (Durham University
    Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research)

  • Colin Vullioud

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research)

  • François Rousset

    (Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD)

  • Erik Postma

    (University of Exeter)

  • Samuli Helle

    (University of Turku)

  • Virpi Lummaa

    (University of Turku)

  • Ritva Kylli

    (University of Oulu)

  • Jenni E. Pettay

    (University of Turku)

  • Eivin Røskaft

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Gine R. Skjærvø

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Charlotte Störmer

    (Justus Liebig University Gießen)

  • Eckart Voland

    (Justus Liebig University Gießen)

  • Dominique Waldvogel

    (University of Zurich)

  • Alexandre Courtiol

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research)

Abstract

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian J. Rickard & Colin Vullioud & François Rousset & Erik Postma & Samuli Helle & Virpi Lummaa & Ritva Kylli & Jenni E. Pettay & Eivin Røskaft & Gine R. Skjærvø & Charlotte Störmer & Eckart Voland & D, 2022. "Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30366-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30366-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenni E Pettay & Mirkka Lahdenperä & Anna Rotkirch & Virpi Lummaa & Jonathan PruittHandling editor, 2018. "Effects of female reproductive competition on birth rate and reproductive scheduling in a historical human population," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 29(2), pages 333-341.
    2. Florin Vaida & Suzette Blanchard, 2005. "Conditional Akaike information for mixed-effects models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(2), pages 351-370, June.
    3. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    4. Virpi Lummaa & Erkki Haukioja & Risto Lemmetyinen & Mirja Pikkola, 1998. "Natural selection on human twinning," Nature, Nature, vol. 394(6693), pages 533-534, August.
    5. James R. Bland & Amanda C. Cook, 2019. "Random effects probit and logit: understanding predictions and marginal effects," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 116-123, January.
    6. Jeroen Smits & Christiaan Monden, 2011. "Twinning across the Developing World," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-5, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Meitern & Mark Gortfelder & Allan Puur & Peeter Hõrak, 2024. "Maternal capacity, twinning and fertility: the last birth matters," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-4, December.
    2. Alexandre Courtiol & Colin Vullioud & François Rousset & Erik Postma & Samuli Helle & Virpi Lummaa & Ritva Kylli & Jenni E. Pettay & Eivin Røskaft & Gine R. Skjærvø & Charlotte Störmer & Eckart Voland, 2024. "Reply to: Maternal capacity, twinning and fertility: the last birth matters," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-4, December.

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