IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-29310-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection

Author

Listed:
  • Tim K. Tsang

    (The University of Hong Kong
    Hong Kong Science and Technology Park)

  • Ranawaka A. P. M. Perera

    (The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong)

  • Vicky J. Fang

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Jessica Y. Wong

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Eunice Y. Shiu

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Hau Chi So

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Dennis K. M. Ip

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • J. S. Malik Peiris

    (The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong)

  • Gabriel M. Leung

    (The University of Hong Kong
    Hong Kong Science and Technology Park)

  • Benjamin J. Cowling

    (The University of Hong Kong
    Hong Kong Science and Technology Park)

  • Simon Cauchemez

    (Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS)

Abstract

For >70 years, a 4-fold or greater rise in antibody titer has been used to confirm influenza virus infections in paired sera, despite recognition that this heuristic can lack sensitivity. Here we analyze with a novel Bayesian model a large cohort of 2353 individuals followed for up to 5 years in Hong Kong to characterize influenza antibody dynamics and develop an algorithm to improve the identification of influenza virus infections. After infection, we estimate that hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers were boosted by 16-fold on average and subsequently decrease by 14% per year. In six epidemics, the infection risks for adults were 3%–19% while the infection risks for children were 1.6–4.4 times higher than that of younger adults. Every two-fold increase in pre-epidemic HAI titer was associated with 19%–58% protection against infection. Our inferential framework clarifies the contributions of age and pre-epidemic HAI titers to characterize individual infection risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim K. Tsang & Ranawaka A. P. M. Perera & Vicky J. Fang & Jessica Y. Wong & Eunice Y. Shiu & Hau Chi So & Dennis K. M. Ip & J. S. Malik Peiris & Gabriel M. Leung & Benjamin J. Cowling & Simon Caucheme, 2022. "Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29310-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29310-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29310-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-29310-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henrik Salje & Derek A. T. Cummings & Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer & Leah C. Katzelnick & Justin Lessler & Chonticha Klungthong & Butsaya Thaisomboonsuk & Ananda Nisalak & Alden Weg & Damon Ellison & Lo, 2018. "Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7707), pages 719-723, May.
    2. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
    3. Sigrid Gouma & Kangchon Kim & Madison E. Weirick & Megan E. Gumina & Angela Branche & David J. Topham & Emily T. Martin & Arnold S. Monto & Sarah Cobey & Scott E. Hensley, 2020. "Middle-aged individuals may be in a perpetual state of H3N2 influenza virus susceptibility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    3. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    4. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. Kuchler, Theresa & Russel, Dominic & Stroebel, Johannes, 2022. "JUE Insight: The geographic spread of COVID-19 correlates with the structure of social networks as measured by Facebook," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. John M Drake & Tobias S Brett & Shiyang Chen & Bogdan I Epureanu & Matthew J Ferrari & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Eamon B O’Dea & Suzanne M O’Regan & Andrew W Park & Pejman Rohani, 2019. "The statistics of epidemic transitions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, May.
    7. S. M. Niaz Arifin & Christoph Zimmer & Caroline Trotter & Anaïs Colombini & Fati Sidikou & F. Marc LaForce & Ted Cohen & Reza Yaesoubi, 2019. "Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 39(5), pages 553-567, July.
    8. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    9. Mirjam Kretzschmar & Rafael T Mikolajczyk, 2009. "Contact Profiles in Eight European Countries and Implications for Modelling the Spread of Airborne Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(6), pages 1-8, June.
    10. Andrei I. Vlad & Alexei A. Romanyukha & Tatiana E. Sannikova, 2024. "Parameter Tuning of Agent-Based Models: Metaheuristic Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-21, July.
    11. Elisabetta De Cao & Alessia Melegaro & Rogier Klok & Maarten Postma, 2014. "Optimising Assessments of the Epidemiological Impact in the Netherlands of Paediatric Immunisation with 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Using Dynamic Transmission Modelling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(4), pages 1-9, April.
    12. Gillis, Melissa & Urban, Ryley & Saif, Ahmed & Kamal, Noreen & Murphy, Matthew, 2021. "A simulation–optimization framework for optimizing response strategies to epidemics," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    13. Richard Pitman & David Fisman & Gregory S. Zaric & Maarten Postma & Mirjam Kretzschmar & John Edmunds & Marc Brisson, 2012. "Dynamic Transmission Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(5), pages 712-721, September.
    14. Wiriya Mahikul & Somkid Kripattanapong & Piya Hanvoravongchai & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Prasert Auewarakul & Wirichada Pan-ngum, 2020. "Contact Mixing Patterns and Population Movement among Migrant Workers in an Urban Setting in Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-11, March.
    15. Valentina Marziano & Giorgio Guzzetta & Alessia Mammone & Flavia Riccardo & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Mattia Manica & Andrea Siddu & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Patrizio Pezzotti & Ma, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    16. Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa & Daniel Dempsey & Suzanne Van Osch & Stephen Kinsella & Kevin Burke & Jason Wyse & James Sweeney, 2021. "An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-25, December.
    17. Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis & Thomas K. Dasaklis & Filippos Fotopoulos & Platon Tinios, 2021. "A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Hammoumi, Aayah & Qesmi, Redouane, 2020. "Impact assessment of containment measure against COVID-19 spread in Morocco," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Thomas Ash & Antonio M. Bento & Daniel Kaffine & Akhil Rao & Ana I. Bento, 2022. "Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Sudhir Venkatesan & Jonathan S Nguyen-Van-Tam & Peer-Olaf Siebers, 2019. "A novel framework for evaluating the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes and its potential application to study antiviral treatment collection during an influenza pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29310-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.