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Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

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  • Fabian Stenzel

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Geography
    Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems)

  • Peter Greve

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Wolfgang Lucht

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Geography
    Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems)

  • Sylvia Tramberend

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Yoshihide Wada

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Dieter Gerten

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Geography
    Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems)

Abstract

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Stenzel & Peter Greve & Wolfgang Lucht & Sylvia Tramberend & Yoshihide Wada & Dieter Gerten, 2021. "Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21640-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3
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    1. Bryan K. Mignone & Leon Clarke & James A. Edmonds & Angelo Gurgel & Howard J. Herzog & Jeremiah X. Johnson & Dharik S. Mallapragada & Haewon McJeon & Jennifer Morris & Patrick R. O’Rourke & Sergey Pal, 2024. "Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. G.-Fivos Sargentis & Paraskevi Siamparina & Georgia-Konstantina Sakki & Andreas Efstratiadis & Michalis Chiotinis & Demetris Koutsoyiannis, 2021. "Agricultural Land or Photovoltaic Parks? The Water–Energy–Food Nexus and Land Development Perspectives in the Thessaly Plain, Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Ren, Ming & Ma, Teng & Fang, Chen & Liu, Xiaorui & Guo, Chaoyi & Zhang, Silu & Zhou, Ziqiao & Zhu, Yanlei & Dai, Hancheng & Huang, Chen, 2023. "Negative emission technology is key to decarbonizing China's cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    5. Jingmeng Wang & Wei Li & Philippe Ciais & Laurent Z. X. Li & Jinfeng Chang & Daniel Goll & Thomas Gasser & Xiaomeng Huang & Narayanappa Devaraju & Olivier Boucher, 2021. "Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Zhao Li & Philippe Ciais & Jonathon S. Wright & Yong Wang & Shu Liu & Jingmeng Wang & Laurent Z. X. Li & Hui Lu & Xiaomeng Huang & Lei Zhu & Daniel S. Goll & Wei Li, 2023. "Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Fang, Yan Ru & Hossain, MD Shouquat & Peng, Shuan & Han, Ling & Yang, Pingjian, 2024. "Sustainable energy development of crop straw in five southern provinces of China: Bioenergy production, land, and water saving potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Marek Wieruszewski & Katarzyna Mydlarz, 2022. "The Potential of the Bioenergy Market in the European Union—An Overview of Energy Biomass Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Wähling, Lara-Sophie & Fridahl, Mathias & Heimann, Tobias & Merk, Christine, 2023. "The sequence matters: Expert opinions on policy mechanisms for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 275739, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    11. Welfle, Andrew & Röder, Mirjam, 2022. "Mapping the sustainability of bioenergy to maximise benefits, mitigate risks and drive progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 493-509.
    12. Weng, Yuwei & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Evaluating the use of BECCS and afforestation under China’s carbon-neutral target for 2060," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).

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