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Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers

Author

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  • Wen-Ying Wu

    (National Taiwan University
    The University of Texas at Austin)

  • Min-Hui Lo

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Yoshihide Wada

    (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)

  • James S. Famiglietti

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • John T. Reager

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Pat J.-F. Yeh

    (Monash University Malaysia)

  • Agnès Ducharne

    (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, EPHE, UMR 7619 METIS)

  • Zong-Liang Yang

    (The University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Ying Wu & Min-Hui Lo & Yoshihide Wada & James S. Famiglietti & John T. Reager & Pat J.-F. Yeh & Agnès Ducharne & Zong-Liang Yang, 2020. "Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17581-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17581-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahadevan, Meera & Shenoy, Ajay, 2023. "The political consequences of resource scarcity: Targeted spending in a water-stressed democracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. repec:ags:aaea22:335443 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andreas Wunsch & Tanja Liesch & Stefan Broda, 2022. "Deep learning shows declining groundwater levels in Germany until 2100 due to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Roohollah Noori & Mohsen Maghrebi & Søren Jessen & Sayed M. Bateni & Essam Heggy & Saman Javadi & Mojtaba Noury & Severin Pistre & Soroush Abolfathi & Amir AghaKouchak, 2023. "Decline in Iran’s groundwater recharge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Mundetia, Nitika & Sharma, Devesh & Sharma, Aditya, 2024. "Groundwater sustainability assessment under climate change scenarios using integrated modelling approach and multi-criteria decision method," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    6. Yujuan Su & Fengtian Yang & Yaoxuan Chen & Pan Zhang & Xue Zhang, 2021. "Optimization of Groundwater Exploitation in an Irrigation Area in the Arid Upper Peacock River, NW China: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Ecology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Kristof Dorau & Tim Mansfeldt, 2023. "Vulnerability of diked marsh ecosystems under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Subham Roy & Arghadeep Bose & Debanjan Basak & Indrajit Roy Chowdhury, 2024. "Towards sustainable society: the sustainable livelihood security (SLS) approach for prioritizing development and understanding sustainability: an insight from West Bengal, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20095-20126, August.

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