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Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change

Author

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  • Takuya Iwamura

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • Adriana Guzman-Holst

    (Imperial College London)

  • Kris A. Murray

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Takuya Iwamura & Adriana Guzman-Holst & Kris A. Murray, 2020. "Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-16010-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Mmabaledi Buxton & Malebogo Portia Buxton & Honest Machekano & Casper Nyamukondiwa & Ryan John Wasserman, 2021. "A Survey of Potentially Pathogenic-Incriminated Arthropod Vectors of Health Concern in Botswana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Abdalgader, Tarteel & Banerjee, Malay & Zhang, Lai, 2022. "Spatially weak syncronization of spreading pattern between Aedes Albopictus and dengue fever," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    3. Emily Ying Yang Chan & Tiffany Sze Tung Sham & Tayyab Salim Shahzada & Caroline Dubois & Zhe Huang & Sida Liu & Kevin K.C. Hung & Shelly L.A. Tse & Kin On Kwok & Pui-Hong Chung & Ryoma Kayano & Rajib , 2020. "Narrative Review on Health-EDRM Primary Prevention Measures for Vector-Borne Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-28, August.
    4. Shlomit Paz & Azeem Majeed & George K. Christophides, 2021. "Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)—risks and recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Ana C Piovezan-Borges & Francisco Valente-Neto & Wanderli P Tadei & Neusa Hamada & Fabio O Roque, 2020. "Simulated climate change, but not predation risk, accelerates Aedes aegypti emergence in a microcosm experiment in western Amazonia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Melina Kourantidou & Laura N H Verbrugge & Phillip J Haubrock & Ross N Cuthbert & Elena Angulo & Inkeri Ahonen & Michelle Cleary & Jannike Falk-Andersson & Lena Granhag & Sindri Gíslason & Brooks Kais, 2022. "The economic costs, management and regulation of biological invasions in the Nordic countries," Post-Print hal-03860518, HAL.
    7. Philip Kofi Adom, 2024. "The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades," Working Papers 681, Center for Global Development.
    8. Cerri, Jacopo & Sciandra, Chiara & Contardo, Tania & Bertolino, Sandro, 2022. "For the few, not the many: local economic conditions constrain the large-scale management of invasive mosquitoes," EcoEvoRxiv 3ju9v, Center for Open Science.
    9. Ethan C. Veit & Madihah S. Salim & Mariel J. Jung & R. Blake Richardson & Ian N. Boys & Meghan Quinlan & Erika A. Barrall & Eva Bednarski & Rachael E. Hamilton & Caroline Kikawa & Nels C. Elde & Adolf, 2024. "Evolution of STAT2 resistance to flavivirus NS5 occurred multiple times despite genetic constraints," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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