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Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Author

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  • Yanjun Wang

    (Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Anqian Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jianqing Zhai

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Hui Tao

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Tong Jiang

    (Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Buda Su

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jun Yang

    (Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University)

  • Guojie Wang

    (Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Qiyong Liu

    (National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Chao Gao

    (Faculty of Architectural, Civil Engineering and Environment, Ningbo University)

  • Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

    (Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
    Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences)

  • Mingjin Zhan

    (Jiangxi Climate Center)

  • Zhiqiang Feng

    (School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh)

  • Thomas Fischer

    (Eberhard Karls University)

Abstract

The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanjun Wang & Anqian Wang & Jianqing Zhai & Hui Tao & Tong Jiang & Buda Su & Jun Yang & Guojie Wang & Qiyong Liu & Chao Gao & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Mingjin Zhan & Zhiqiang Feng & Thomas Fischer, 2019. "Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-11283-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Chin Leong Lim, 2020. "Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-34, October.
    2. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Jiayan Li & Ranhao Sun & Jialei Li & Yongfu Ma & Meng Zhang & Liding Chen, 2024. "Human extreme heat protective behaviours: the effects of physical risks, psychological perception, and public measures," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Xiaojie Lv & Xinyu Fang & Tingting Qian & Yuyu Cai & Peng Gao & Haifeng Chen & Qing Wu & Jun Wu & Yinguang Fan & Dongqing Ye, 2023. "Association between Meteorological Factors and Outpatient Visits for Herpes Zoster in Hefei, China: A Time-Series Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Meng, Fanchao & Zhang, Lei & Ren, Guoyu & Zhang, Ruixue, 2023. "Impacts of UHI on variations in cooling loads in buildings during heatwaves: A case study of Beijing and Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).

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