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Potential for low-cost carbon dioxide removal through tropical reforestation

Author

Listed:
  • Jonah Busch

    (Earth Innovation Institute)

  • Jens Engelmann

    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin)

  • Susan C. Cook-Patton

    (The Nature Conservancy)

  • Bronson W. Griscom

    (The Nature Conservancy)

  • Timm Kroeger

    (The Nature Conservancy)

  • Hugh Possingham

    (The Nature Conservancy)

  • Priya Shyamsundar

    (The Nature Conservancy)

Abstract

Achieving the 1.5–2.0 °C temperature targets of the Paris climate agreement requires not only reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but also increasing removals of GHGs from the atmosphere1,2. Reforestation is a potentially large-scale method for removing CO2 and storing it in the biomass and soils of ecosystems3–8, yet its cost per tonne remains uncertain6,9. Here, we produce spatially disaggregated marginal abatement cost curves for tropical reforestation by simulating the effects of payments for increased CO2 removals on land-cover change in 90 countries. We estimate that removals from tropical reforestation between 2020–2050 could be increased by 5.7 GtCO2 (5.6%) at a carbon price of US $20 CO2–1, or by 15.1 GtCO2 (14.8%) at US$50 tCO2–1. Ten countries comprise 55% of potential low-cost abatement from tropical reforestation. Avoided deforestation offers 7.2–9.6 times as much potential low-cost abatement as reforestation overall (55.1 GtCO2 at US$20 tCO2–1 or 108.3 GtCO2 at US$50 tCO2–1), but reforestation offers more potential low-cost abatement than avoided deforestation at US$20 tCO2–1 in 21 countries, 17 of which are in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonah Busch & Jens Engelmann & Susan C. Cook-Patton & Bronson W. Griscom & Timm Kroeger & Hugh Possingham & Priya Shyamsundar, 2019. "Potential for low-cost carbon dioxide removal through tropical reforestation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(6), pages 463-466, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0485-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0485-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Yunfei An & Xunpeng Shi & Qunwei Wang & Jian Yu & Dequn Zhou & Xiaoyong Zhou, 2023. "China's manufacturing firms' willingness to pay for carbon abatement: A cost perspective," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(8), pages 5477-5486, December.
    2. Fatai Abiola Sowunmi & Abeeb Adetunji Bello & Adebayo Isaiah Ogunniyi & Abiodun Olusola Omotayo, 2022. "Delving Deeper into Market Concentration of Poultry Feed and the Driving Factors for Brand Switching: Evidence from Commercial Egg Producers in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Edward B. Barbier & Joanne C. Burgess, 2021. "Sustainable Use of the Environment, Planetary Boundaries and Market Power," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Eriksson, Mathilda, 2020. "Afforestation and avoided deforestation in a multi-regional integrated assessment model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Mensah, Edouard R. & Shinde, Nilesh & Kakpo, Ange T. & Djenontin, Ida N.S., 2024. "The human well-being outcomes of tree plantations in sub-Saharan Africa: A reassessment of evidence using longitudinal subnational-year data," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Shyamsundar, Priya & Sauls, Laura Aileen & Cheek, Jennifer Zavaleta & Sullivan-Wiley, Kira & Erbaugh, J.T. & Krishnapriya, P.P., 2021. "Global forces of change: Implications for forest-poverty dynamics," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Susan C. Cook-Patton & C. Ronnie Drever & Bronson W. Griscom & Kelley Hamrick & Hamilton Hardman & Timm Kroeger & Pablo Pacheco & Shyla Raghav & Martha Stevenson & Chris Webb & Samantha Yeo & Peter W., 2021. "Protect, manage and then restore lands for climate mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1027-1034, December.
    8. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Juan David Alonso-Sanabria & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Unveiling the critical role of forest areas amidst climate change: The Latin American case," Borradores de Economia 1254, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. van Soest,Daan & Adjognon,Guigonan Serge & van der Heijden,Eline, 2021. "Incentivizing Conservation of de facto Community-Owned Forests," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9693, The World Bank.
    11. Chu, Long & Grafton, R. Quentin & Nguyen, Hai, 2022. "A global analysis of the break-even prices to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide via forest plantation and avoided deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Bruno D. V. Marino & Nahuel Bautista & Brandt Rousseaux, 2021. "Howland Forest, ME, USA: Multi-Gas Flux (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O) Social Cost Product Underscores Limited Carbon Proxies," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    13. Steur, Gijs & Verburg, René W. & Wassen, Martin J. & Verweij, Pita A., 2020. "Shedding light on relationships between plant diversity and tropical forest ecosystem services across spatial scales and plot sizes," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Jingyan Fu & Artie W. Ng, 2021. "Scaling up Renewable Energy Assets: Issuing Green Bond via Structured Public-Private Collaboration for Managing Risk in an Emerging Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.
    15. Lucchesi, Andrea & Khanna, Madhu & Pereda, Paula C. & Ussami, Keyi A. & Ruggiero, Patricia G.C. & Dornelas, Victor S. & Lallement, Tess, 2024. "Araguaia biodiversity corridor cost benefit analysis: Large scale restoration and sustainable agribusiness in Amazon and Cerrado," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Rana, Pushpendra & Fleischman, Forrest & Ramprasad, Vijay & Lee, Kangjae, 2022. "Predicting wasteful spending in tree planting programs in Indian Himalaya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Špirić, Jovanka & Salinas-Melgoza, Miguel Angel & Merlo-Reyes, Ana & Ramírez, M. Isabel, 2023. "Estimating the causal effect of forestry programs on forest recovery in a REDD+ priority area in Michoacán, Mexico," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Golub, Alexander & Herrera, Diego & Leslie, Gabriela & Pietracci, Breno & Lubowski, Ruben, 2021. "A real options framework for reducing emissions from deforestation: Reconciling short-term incentives with long-term benefits from conservation and agricultural intensification," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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