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Asserting the climate benefits of the coal-to-gas shift across temporal and spatial scales

Author

Listed:
  • Katsumasa Tanaka

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies
    Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Sorbonne Université
    Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies)

  • Otávio Cavalett

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • William J. Collins

    (University of Reading)

  • Francesco Cherubini

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Reducing CO2 emissions through a shift from coal to natural gas power plants is a key strategy to support pathways for climate stabilization. However, methane leakage in the natural gas supply chain and emissions of a variety of climate forcers call the net benefits of this transition into question. Here, we integrated a life cycle inventory model with multiple global and regional emission metrics and investigated the impacts of representative coal and gas power plants in China, Germany, India and the United States. We found that the coal-to-gas shift is consistent with climate stabilization objectives for the next 50–100 years. Our finding is robust under a range of leakage rates and uncertainties in emissions data and metrics. It becomes conditional to the leakage rate in some locations only if we employ a set of metrics that essentially focus on short-term effects. Our case for the coal-to-gas shift is stronger than previously found, reinforcing the support for coal phase-out.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsumasa Tanaka & Otávio Cavalett & William J. Collins & Francesco Cherubini, 2019. "Asserting the climate benefits of the coal-to-gas shift across temporal and spatial scales," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 389-396, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0457-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0457-1
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    1. Sun, Lu & Liu, Wenjing & Li, Zhaoling & Cai, Bofeng & Fujii, Minoru & Luo, Xiao & Chen, Wei & Geng, Yong & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Le, Yiping, 2021. "Spatial and structural characteristics of CO2 emissions in East Asian megacities and its indication for low-carbon city development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    2. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    3. Otavio Cavalett & Marcos D. B. Watanabe & Mari Voldsund & Simon Roussanaly & Francesco Cherubini, 2024. "Paving the way for sustainable decarbonization of the European cement industry," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 568-580, May.
    4. Morgan R. Edwards & Jessika E. Trancik, 2022. "Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-27, November.
    5. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Mariliis Lehtveer, 2022. "emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves," Papers 2212.12060, arXiv.org.
    6. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Hao Chen & Ling He & Jiachuan Chen & Bo Yuan & Teng Huang & Qi Cui, 2019. "Impacts of Clean Energy Substitution for Polluting Fossil-Fuels in Terminal Energy Consumption on the Economy and Environment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-29, November.
    8. Mei, Yingdan & Liu, Wenbo & Wang, Jianliang & Bentley, Yongmei, 2022. "Shale gas development and regional economic growth: Evidence from Fuling, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    9. Liu, Li & Sheng, Jichuan, 2024. "Energy quota trading and energy vulnerability: China's energy quota trading pilot," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Elizabeth Lindstad & Gunnar S. Eskeland & Agathe Rialland & Anders Valland, 2020. "Decarbonizing Maritime Transport: The Importance of Engine Technology and Regulations for LNG to Serve as a Transition Fuel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, October.
    11. Yang, Jun & Hao, Yun & Feng, Chao, 2021. "A race between economic growth and carbon emissions: What play important roles towards global low-carbon development?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Kan, Siyi & Chen, Bin & Meng, Jing & Chen, Guoqian, 2020. "An extended overview of natural gas use embodied in world economy and supply chains: Policy implications from a time series analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Palma, Alessia & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Goodell, John W. & Oriani, Marco Ercole, 2024. "The black box of natural gas market: Past, present, and future," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Wu, Junnian & Wang, Na, 2020. "Exploring avoidable carbon emissions by reducing exergy destruction based on advanced exergy analysis: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    15. Wu, Desheng & Xie, Yu & Liu, Dingjie, 2023. "Rethinking the complex effects of the clean energy transition on air pollution abatement: Evidence from China's coal-to-gas policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    16. Lori Bruhwiler & Sourish Basu & James H. Butler & Abhishek Chatterjee & Ed Dlugokencky & Melissa A. Kenney & Allison McComiskey & Stephen A. Montzka & Diane Stanitski, 2021. "Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-18, March.
    17. Rashid, Kashif & Speck, Andrew & Osedach, Timothy P. & Perroni, Dominic V. & Pomerantz, Andrew E., 2020. "Optimized inspection of upstream oil and gas methane emissions using airborne LiDAR surveillance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).

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