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Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Author

Listed:
  • Peter U. Clark

    (College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University)

  • Jeremy D. Shakun

    (Boston College)

  • Shaun A. Marcott

    (University of Wisconsin)

  • Alan C. Mix

    (College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University)

  • Michael Eby

    (School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria
    Simon Fraser University)

  • Scott Kulp

    (Climate Central)

  • Anders Levermann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
    Institute of Physics, Potsdam University)

  • Glenn A. Milne

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Patrik L. Pfister

    (Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern)

  • Benjamin D. Santer

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Daniel P. Schrag

    (Harvard University)

  • Susan Solomon

    (Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Thomas F. Stocker

    (Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern
    Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research)

  • Benjamin H. Strauss

    (Climate Central)

  • Andrew J. Weaver

    (School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria)

  • Ricarda Winkelmann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • David Archer

    (University of Chicago)

  • Edouard Bard

    (CEREGE, Aix-Marseille University – CNRS– IRD – College de France, Technopole de l'Arbois)

  • Aaron Goldner

    (AAAS Science and Technology Fellow)

  • Kurt Lambeck

    (Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University
    Laboratoire de Géologie de l'École Normale Supérieure)

  • Raymond T. Pierrehumbert

    (Oxford University)

  • Gian-Kasper Plattner

    (Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern)

Abstract

Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter U. Clark & Jeremy D. Shakun & Shaun A. Marcott & Alan C. Mix & Michael Eby & Scott Kulp & Anders Levermann & Glenn A. Milne & Patrik L. Pfister & Benjamin D. Santer & Daniel P. Schrag & Susan So, 2016. "Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 360-369, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1038_nclimate2923
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2923
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    Cited by:

    1. Otto, C. & Willner, S.N. & Wenz, L. & Frieler, K. & Levermann, A., 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-269.
    2. María-José Foncubierta-Rodríguez & Rafael Ravina-Ripoll & José Antonio López-Sánchez, 2021. "Generational Portrait of Spanish Society in the Face of Climate Change. A Question to Consider for the Green Economy under the Well-Being Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Eduardo Marone & Martin Bohle, 2020. "Geoethics for Nudging Human Practices in Times of Pandemics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Wang, Shaojian & Wang, Jieyu & Zhou, Yuquan, 2018. "Estimating the effects of socioeconomic structure on CO2 emissions in China using an econometric analysis framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 18-27.
    5. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    6. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    7. Le, Hanh-My & Ludwig, Markus, 2022. "The Salinization of Agricultural Hubs: Impacts and Adjustments to Intensifying Saltwater Intrusion in the Mekong Delta," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264102, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Galimova, Tansu & Satymov, Rasul & Keiner, Dominik & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Sustainable energy transition of Greenland and its prospects as a potential Arctic e-fuel and e-chemical export hub for Europe and East Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. He, Yixiong & Zhang, Fengxuan & Wang, Yanwei, 2023. "How to facilitate efficient blue carbon trading? A simulation study using the game theory to find the optimal strategy for each participant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    10. Ilan Kelman, 2019. "Imaginary Numbers of Climate Change Migrants?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Parton, Lee C. & Dundas, Steven J., 2020. "Fall in the sea, eventually? A green paradox in climate adaptation for coastal housing markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.

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