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Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections

Author

Listed:
  • Reto Knutti

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Jan Sedláček

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

Abstract

Updated models are being used for the new assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study compares projections from the latest models with those from earlier versions. The spread of results has not changed significantly, and some of the spread will always remain due to the internal variability of the climate system. As models improve, they are able to represent more processes in greater detail, allowing for greater confidence in their projections, in spite of model spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Reto Knutti & Jan Sedláček, 2013. "Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 369-373, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:4:d:10.1038_nclimate1716
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1716
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuchuan Lai & Matteo Pozzi, 2024. "Sequential learning of climate change via a physical-parameter-based state-space model and Bayesian inference," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Miao, Haozeyu & Xu, Haiming & Huang, Gang & Yang, Kai, 2023. "Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 809-821.
    3. Zagaria, Cecilia & Schulp, Catharina J.E. & Malek, Žiga & Verburg, Peter H., 2023. "Potential for land and water management adaptations in Mediterranean croplands under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Charles Sims & Sarah E. Null, 2019. "Climate Forecasts and Flood Mitigation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1083-1107, April.
    5. Vincent Bian & Merrick Cai & Christopher L. Follett, 2023. "Understanding opposing predictions of Prochlorococcus in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Kevin T. Wright & Kathleen R. Johnson & Gabriela Serrato Marks & David McGee & Tripti Bhattacharya & Gregory R. Goldsmith & Clay R. Tabor & Jean-Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz & Gianna Lum & Laura Beramendi-O, 2023. "Dynamic and thermodynamic influences on precipitation in Northeast Mexico on orbital to millennial timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Chen, Si-Yuan & Xue, Meng-Tian & Wang, Zhao-Hua & Tian, Xin & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Exploring pathways of phasing out clean heating subsidies for rural residential buildings in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Marius Zumwald & Benedikt Knüsel & Christoph Baumberger & Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn & David N. Bresch & Reto Knutti, 2020. "Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(5), September.
    9. Hadush Meresa & Bernhard Tischbein & Tewodros Mekonnen, 2022. "Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2649-2679, April.
    10. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Charles Sims & Sarah E. Null & Josue Medellin-Azuara & Augustina Odame, 2021. "Hurry Up Or Wait: Are Private Investments In Climate Change Adaptation Delayed?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 1-36, November.

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