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Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

Author

Listed:
  • K. Frieler

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • M. Meinshausen

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne)

  • A. Golly

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • M. Mengel

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • K. Lebek

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • S. D. Donner

    (University of British Columbia)

  • O. Hoegh-Guldberg

    (Global Change Institute and ARC Centre for Excellence in Coral Reefs, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane)

Abstract

Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 °C (atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3–1.8 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals’ thermal adaptation, one-third (9–60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world’s coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30–88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Frieler & M. Meinshausen & A. Golly & M. Mengel & K. Lebek & S. D. Donner & O. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2013. "Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 165-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate1674
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1674
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Congyu & Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Kun, 2023. "How does renewable energy encourage carbon unlocking? A global case for decarbonization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Simon D Donner & Gregory J M Rickbeil & Scott F Heron, 2017. "A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Sol, Joeri, 2019. "Economics in the anthropocene: species extinction or steady state economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Regional differences in the CO2 emissions of China's iron and steel industry: Regional heterogeneity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 422-434.
    6. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "How industrialization and urbanization process impacts on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 188-202.
    7. Jacob G. D. Rogers & Éva E. Plagányi, 2022. "Culling corallivores improves short-term coral recovery under bleaching scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Zhao, Bingbing & Deng, Min & Lo, Siuming & Liu, Baoju, 2024. "Estimating built-up area carbon emissions through addressing regional development disparities with population and nighttime light data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    9. Carlo Fezzi & Mauro Derek J. Ford & Kirsten L.L. Oleson, 2022. "The economic value of coral reefs: climate change impacts and spatial targeting of restoration measures," DEM Working Papers 2022/5, Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Adeel ur Rehman & Bhajan Lal, 2022. "RETRACTED: Gas Hydrate-Based CO 2 Capture: A Journey from Batch to Continuous," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    11. Solomon Hsiang & Robert E. Kopp, 2018. "An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 3-32, Fall.
    12. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    13. Eder, Christina & Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle, 2023. "Bringing the political system (back) into social tipping relevant to sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    14. Friedrich Glauner, 2019. "The Myth of Responsibility: on Changing the Purpose Paradigm," Humanistic Management Journal, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-32, July.
    15. Thomas W. Davies & Oren Levy & Svenja Tidau & Laura Fernandes Barros Marangoni & Joerg Wiedenmann & Cecilia D’Angelo & Tim Smyth, 2023. "Global disruption of coral broadcast spawning associated with artificial light at night," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    16. Joeri Sol, 2018. "Economics in the Anthropocene: Species Extinction or Steady State Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-039/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 07 Oct 2018.
    17. Winkelmann, Ricarda & Donges, Jonathan F. & Smith, E. Keith & Milkoreit, Manjana & Eder, Christina & Heitzig, Jobst & Katsanidou, Alexia & Wiedermann, Marc & Wunderling, Nico & Lenton, Timothy M., 2022. "Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    18. Fezzi, Carlo & Ford, Derek J. & Oleson, Kirsten L.L., 2023. "The economic value of coral reefs: Climate change impacts and spatial targeting of restoration measures," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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