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Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Waidelich

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Fulden Batibeniz

    (ETH Zurich
    University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • James Rising

    (University of Delaware)

  • Jarmo S. Kikstra

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 °C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damage, the additional impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by interannual variability, especially at lower latitudes. However, accounting for variability and extremes when estimating the temperature dose–response function raises global economic losses by nearly two percentage points and exacerbates economic tail risks. These results call for region-specific risk assessments and the integration of other climate variables for a better understanding of climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Waidelich & Fulden Batibeniz & James Rising & Jarmo S. Kikstra & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2024. "Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 592-599, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-024-01990-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01990-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
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