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Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets

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  • Tsimafei Kazlou

    (University of Bergen
    University of Bergen)

  • Aleh Cherp

    (Central European University
    Lund University)

  • Jessica Jewell

    (University of Bergen
    University of Bergen
    Chalmers University of Technology
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict

Suggested Citation

  • Tsimafei Kazlou & Aleh Cherp & Jessica Jewell, 2024. "Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(10), pages 1047-1055, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02104-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0
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    1. Rubin, Edward S. & Yeh, Sonia & Antes, Matt & Berkenpas, Michael & Davison, John, 2007. "Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt46x6h0n0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Kavlak, Goksin & McNerney, James & Trancik, Jessika E., 2018. "Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 700-710.
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