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Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions

Author

Listed:
  • Nan Lu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hanqin Tian

    (Boston College
    Auburn University)

  • Bojie Fu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Huiqian Yu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shiyin Chen

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Ya Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiaoyong Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mengyu Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zidong Li

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Lu Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ
    The Cyprus Institute)

  • Pete Smith

    (University of Aberdeen)

Abstract

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China’s historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5–0.7) PgCO2e yr−1 (95% CI) during 2000–2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3–1.0) PgCO2e yr−1 (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020–2030 and 1.0 (0.6–1.4) PgCO2e yr−1 during 2020–2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26–31%, 62–65% and 90–91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO2e)−1, respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China’s Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Lu & Hanqin Tian & Bojie Fu & Huiqian Yu & Shilong Piao & Shiyin Chen & Ya Li & Xiaoyong Li & Mengyu Wang & Zidong Li & Lu Zhang & Philippe Ciais & Pete Smith, 2022. "Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 847-853, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01432-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Ze & Hu, Baoqing & Jiang, Weiguo & Qiu, Haihong, 2023. "Construction of ecological security pattern based on ecological carrying capacity assessment 1990–2040: A case study of the Southwest Guangxi Karst - Beibu Gulf," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 479(C).

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