IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v12y2022i9d10.1038_s41558-022-01432-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions

Author

Listed:
  • Nan Lu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hanqin Tian

    (Boston College
    Auburn University)

  • Bojie Fu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Huiqian Yu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shiyin Chen

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Ya Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiaoyong Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mengyu Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zidong Li

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Lu Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ
    The Cyprus Institute)

  • Pete Smith

    (University of Aberdeen)

Abstract

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China’s historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5–0.7) PgCO2e yr−1 (95% CI) during 2000–2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3–1.0) PgCO2e yr−1 (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020–2030 and 1.0 (0.6–1.4) PgCO2e yr−1 during 2020–2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26–31%, 62–65% and 90–91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO2e)−1, respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China’s Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Lu & Hanqin Tian & Bojie Fu & Huiqian Yu & Shilong Piao & Shiyin Chen & Ya Li & Xiaoyong Li & Mengyu Wang & Zidong Li & Lu Zhang & Philippe Ciais & Pete Smith, 2022. "Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 847-853, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01432-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01432-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicole Glanemann & Sven N. Willner & Anders Levermann, 2020. "Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2015. "Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus' Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 574-620, March.
    3. Dietz, Simon & Stern, Nicholas, 2015. "Endogenous growth, convexity of damage and climate risk: how Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58406, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Hanqin Tian & Chaoqun Lu & Philippe Ciais & Anna M. Michalak & Josep G. Canadell & Eri Saikawa & Deborah N. Huntzinger & Kevin R. Gurney & Stephen Sitch & Bowen Zhang & Jia Yang & Philippe Bousquet & , 2016. "The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere," Nature, Nature, vol. 531(7593), pages 225-228, March.
    5. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 895-900, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Songbai Hong & Jinzhi Ding & Fei Kan & Hao Xu & Shaoyuan Chen & Yitong Yao & Shilong Piao, 2023. "Asymmetry of carbon sequestrations by plant and soil after forestation regulated by soil nitrogen," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Zhang, Ze & Hu, Baoqing & Jiang, Weiguo & Qiu, Haihong, 2023. "Construction of ecological security pattern based on ecological carrying capacity assessment 1990–2040: A case study of the Southwest Guangxi Karst - Beibu Gulf," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 479(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Yongyang Cai & William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Climate Change Impact on Economic Growth: Regional Climate Policy under Cooperation and Noncooperation," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 569-605.
    5. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    6. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    7. Marie-Noëlle Woillez & Gaël Giraud & Antoine Godin, 2020. "Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences," Post-Print hal-03102681, HAL.
    8. Moritz A. Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt & Robert Christian Schmidt, 2022. "Pricing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9608, CESifo.
    9. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    11. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    12. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    13. Bretschger, Lucas, 2021. "Getting the Costs of Environmental Protection Right: Why Climate Policy Is Inexpensive in the End," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Martin Zapf & Hermann Pengg & Christian Weindl, 2019. "How to Comply with the Paris Agreement Temperature Goal: Global Carbon Pricing According to Carbon Budgets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-20, August.
    15. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2017. "The Agnostic’s Response to Climate Deniers: Price Carbon!," CEPR Discussion Papers 12468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    17. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    18. Beirne, John & Dafermos, Yannis & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich & Wittich, Jana, 2022. "Natural Disasters and Inflation in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264132, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    20. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01432-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.