IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v12y2022i5d10.1038_s41558-022-01329-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming

Author

Listed:
  • Chad W. Thackeray

    (University of California)

  • Alex Hall

    (University of California)

  • Jesse Norris

    (University of California)

  • Di Chen

    (University of California)

Abstract

A key indicator of climate change is the greater frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes across much of the globe. In fact, several studies have already documented increased regional precipitation extremes over recent decades. Future projections of these changes, however, vary widely across climate models. Using two generations of models, here we demonstrate an emergent relationship between the future increased occurrence of precipitation extremes aggregated over the globe and the observable change in their frequency over recent decades. This relationship is robust in constraining frequency changes in precipitation extremes in two separate ensembles and under two future emissions pathways (reducing intermodel spread by 20–40%). Moreover, this relationship is also apparent when the analysis is limited to near-global land regions. These constraints suggest that historical global precipitation extremes will occur roughly 32 ± 8% more often than at present by 2100 under a medium-emissions pathway (and 55 ± 13% more often under high emissions).

Suggested Citation

  • Chad W. Thackeray & Alex Hall & Jesse Norris & Di Chen, 2022. "Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(5), pages 441-448, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01329-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01329-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ya Li & Hanqin Tian & Yuanzhi Yao & Hao Shi & Zihao Bian & Yu Shi & Siyuan Wang & Taylor Maavara & Ronny Lauerwald & Shufen Pan, 2024. "Increased nitrous oxide emissions from global lakes and reservoirs since the pre-industrial era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Qiurong Xu & Ruipeng Li & Jia Yu & Pei Zhang, 2023. "Synergies and Trade-Offs among Different Ecosystem Services through the Analyses of Spatio-Temporal Changes in Beijing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Ralph Trancoso & Jozef Syktus & Richard P. Allan & Jacky Croke & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Robin Chadwick, 2024. "Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01329-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.