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Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s

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Listed:
  • Chris A. Boulton

    (University of Exeter)

  • Timothy M. Lenton

    (University of Exeter)

  • Niklas Boers

    (University of Exeter
    Technical University of Munich
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

The resilience of the Amazon rainforest to climate and land-use change is crucial for biodiversity, regional climate and the global carbon cycle. Deforestation and climate change, via increasing dry-season length and drought frequency, may already have pushed the Amazon close to a critical threshold of rainforest dieback. Here, we quantify changes of Amazon resilience by applying established indicators (for example, measuring lag-1 autocorrelation) to remotely sensed vegetation data with a focus on vegetation optical depth (1991–2016). We find that more than three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest has been losing resilience since the early 2000s, consistent with the approach to a critical transition. Resilience is being lost faster in regions with less rainfall and in parts of the rainforest that are closer to human activity. We provide direct empirical evidence that the Amazon rainforest is losing resilience, risking dieback with profound implications for biodiversity, carbon storage and climate change at a global scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris A. Boulton & Timothy M. Lenton & Niklas Boers, 2022. "Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 271-278, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01287-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niklas Boers, 2018. "Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maya Ben-Yami & Vanessa Skiba & Sebastian Bathiany & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Bruno Ubiali & Miguel Alexiades, 2022. "Forests, Fields, and Pastures: Unequal Access to Brazil Nuts and Livelihood Strategies in an Extractive Reserve, Brazilian Amazon," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Florian Diekert & Daniel Heyen & Frikk Nesje & Soheil Shayegh, 2024. "Balancing the Risk of Tipping: Early Warning Systems from Detection to Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 10892, CESifo.
    4. Derek Sheehan & Katrina Mullan & Thales A. P. West & Erin O. Semmens, 2024. "Protecting Life and Lung: Protected Areas Affect Fine Particulate Matter and Respiratory Hospitalizations in the Brazilian Amazon Biome," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(1), pages 45-87, January.
    5. Joana Castro Pereira & João Terrenas, 2022. "Towards a transformative governance of the Amazon," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(S3), pages 60-75, December.
    6. Zhao Li & Philippe Ciais & Jonathon S. Wright & Yong Wang & Shu Liu & Jingmeng Wang & Laurent Z. X. Li & Hui Lu & Xiaomeng Huang & Lei Zhu & Daniel S. Goll & Wei Li, 2023. "Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Fabio R. Marin & Alencar J. Zanon & Juan P. Monzon & José F. Andrade & Evandro H. F. M. Silva & Gean L. Richter & Luis A. S. Antolin & Bruna S. M. R. Ribeiro & Giovana G. Ribas & Rafael Battisti & Ale, 2022. "Protecting the Amazon forest and reducing global warming via agricultural intensification," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1018-1026, December.
    8. Yongheng Rao & Jianjun Zhang, 2022. "Revealing the Land Use Volatility Process in Northern Southeast Asia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Rebecca Froese & Claudia Pinzón & Loreto Aceitón & Tarik Argentim & Marliz Arteaga & Juan Sebastian Navas-Guzmán & Gleiciane Pismel & Sophia Florence Scherer & Jannis Reutter & Janpeter Schilling & Re, 2022. "Conflicts over Land as a Risk for Social-Ecological Resilience: A Transnational Comparative Analysis in the Southwestern Amazon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Helio H. Checon & Hugo H. R. Costa & Guilherme N. Corte & Fernanda M. Souza & Maíra Pombo, 2023. "Rainfall Influences the Patterns of Diversity and Species Distribution in Sandy Beaches of the Amazon Coast," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Taylor Smith & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Kelly Wanser & Sarah J. Doherty & James W. Hurrell & Alex Wong, 2022. "Near-term climate risks and sunlight reflection modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-20, October.
    13. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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