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A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Author

Listed:
  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Volker Krey

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Ken Oshiro

    (Kyoto University)

  • Masahiro Sugiyama

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Puttipong Chunark

    (Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University (TU))

  • Bundit Limmeechokchai

    (Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University (TU))

  • Shivika Mittal

    (Imperial College London
    Ahmedabad University)

  • Osamu Nishiura

    (Kyoto University)

  • Chan Park

    (University of Seoul)

  • Salony Rajbhandari

    (Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University (TU))

  • Diego Silva Herran

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES))

  • Tran Thanh Tu

    (International University–Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City)

  • Shiya Zhao

    (Kyoto University)

  • Yuki Ochi

    (E-Konzal)

  • Priyardarshi R. Shukla

    (Ahmedabad University)

  • Toshihiko Masui

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Phuong V. H. Nguyen

    (Ho Chi Minh City University of Food Industry)

  • Anique-Marie Cabardos

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology)

Abstract

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichiro Fujimori & Volker Krey & Detlef Vuuren & Ken Oshiro & Masahiro Sugiyama & Puttipong Chunark & Bundit Limmeechokchai & Shivika Mittal & Osamu Nishiura & Chan Park & Salony Rajbhandari & Dieg, 2021. "A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 472-480, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01048-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    7. Motlaghzadeh, Kasra & Schweizer, Vanessa & Craik, Neil & Moreno-Cruz, Juan, 2023. "Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

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