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Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Xi

    (Peking University)

  • Shushi Peng

    (Peking University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Youhua Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The 1971 Ramsar Convention promotes wetland conservation worldwide, yet climate change impacts on wetland extent and associated biodiversity are unclear. Hydrological modelling and soil moisture estimates are used to quantify climate change-driven shifts in wetland area across 1,250 inland Ramsar sites. We estimate that net global wetland area expanded during 1980–2014, but 47% of sites experienced wetland loss. By 2100, a net area loss of at least 6,000 km2 (about 1%) is projected. The number of sites with area loss over 10% will increase by 19–65% under low emissions, 148–243% under high emissions and ~16% with global mean warming of 2 °C relative to 1.5 °C. Sites most vulnerable to shrinkage are located in the Mediterranean, Mexico, Central America and South Africa—all seasonal waterbird migration hotspots. Our findings highlight that climate mitigation is essential for future Ramsar wetlands conservation, in addition to the minimization of human disturbance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Xi & Shushi Peng & Philippe Ciais & Youhua Chen, 2021. "Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 45-51, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00942-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00942-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Donghui Xu & Gautam Bisht & Zeli Tan & Eva Sinha & Alan V. Vittorio & Tian Zhou & Valeriy Y. Ivanov & L. Ruby Leung, 2024. "Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Chang Liu & Emily S. Minor & Megan B. Garfinkel & Bo Mu & Guohang Tian, 2021. "Anthropogenic and Climatic Factors Differentially Affect Waterbody Area and Connectivity in an Urbanizing Landscape: A Case Study in Zhengzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Yi Xi & Shushi Peng & Gang Liu & Agnès Ducharne & Philippe Ciais & Catherine Prigent & Xinyu Li & Xutao Tang, 2022. "Trade-off between tree planting and wetland conservation in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Indrė Gečaitė & Egidijus Rimkus, 2023. "Wintertime cold and warm spells in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2435-2456, February.
    5. Tafone, Alessio & Raj Thangavelu, Sundar & Morita, Shigenori & Romagnoli, Alessandro, 2023. "Design optimization of a novel cryo-polygeneration demonstrator developed in Singapore – Techno-economic feasibility study for a cooling dominated tropical climate," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PB).

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