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Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Author

Listed:
  • Maria-Vittoria Guarino

    (British Antarctic Survey)

  • Louise C. Sime

    (British Antarctic Survey)

  • David Schröeder

    (University of Reading)

  • Irene Malmierca-Vallet

    (British Antarctic Survey)

  • Erica Rosenblum

    (University of Manitoba)

  • Mark Ringer

    (The Met Office)

  • Jeff Ridley

    (The Met Office)

  • Danny Feltham

    (University of Reading)

  • Cecilia Bitz

    (University of Washington)

  • Eric J. Steig

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Eric Wolff

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Julienne Stroeve

    (University of Manitoba)

  • Alistair Sellar

    (The Met Office)

Abstract

The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable to correctly capture LIG sea-ice changes. Here, we show that the latest version of the fully coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria-Vittoria Guarino & Louise C. Sime & David Schröeder & Irene Malmierca-Vallet & Erica Rosenblum & Mark Ringer & Jeff Ridley & Danny Feltham & Cecilia Bitz & Eric J. Steig & Eric Wolff & Julienne , 2020. "Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 928-932, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0865-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2023. "Climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Jiping Liu & Mirong Song & Zhu Zhu & Radley M. Horton & Yongyun Hu & Shang-Ping Xie, 2022. "Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.

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