IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nas/journl/v117y2020p9250-9259.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Schneider

    (Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, 6700 EW, Wageningen, Netherlands)

  • Wopke van der Werf

    (Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, 6700 AK, Wageningen, Netherlands)

  • Martina Cendoya

    (Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, 46113 Moncada (Valencia), Spain;)

  • Monique Mourits

    (Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, 6700 EW, Wageningen, Netherlands)

  • Juan A. Navas-Cortés

    (Institute for Sustainable Agriculture, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), 14004 Córdoba, Spain)

  • Antonio Vicent

    (Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, 46113 Moncada (Valencia), Spain)

  • Alfons Oude Lansink

    (Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, 6700 EW, Wageningen, Netherlands)

Abstract

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Schneider & Wopke van der Werf & Martina Cendoya & Monique Mourits & Juan A. Navas-Cortés & Antonio Vicent & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2020. "Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(17), pages 9250-9259, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:9250-9259
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9250.full
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Filiptseva, Anna & Filler, Günther & Odening, Martin, 2023. "Compensation schemes for plant quarantine pest costs: A case study for Germany," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1381-1395.
    2. Schneider, Kevin & Mourits, Monique & van der Werf, Wopke & Lansink, Alfons Oude, 2021. "On consumer impact from Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Gilioli, Gianni & Simonetto, Anna & Colturato, Michele & Bazarra, Noelia & Fernández, José R. & Naso, Maria Grazia & Donato, Boscia & Bosco, Domenico & Dongiovanni, Crescenza & Maiorano, Andrea & Mosb, 2023. "An eco-epidemiological model supporting rational disease management of Xylella fastidiosa. An application to the outbreak in Apulia (Italy)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    4. Telesca, Luciano & Abate, Nicodemo & Faridani, Farid & Lovallo, Michele & Lasaponara, Rosa, 2023. "Revealing traits of phytopathogenic status induced by Xylella Fastidiosa in olive trees by analysing multifractal and informational patterns of MODIS satellite evapotranspiration data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).
    5. Annika Djurle & Beth Young & Anna Berlin & Ivar Vågsholm & Anne-Lie Blomström & Jim Nygren & Anders Kvarnheden, 2022. "Addressing biohazards to food security in primary production," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1475-1497, December.
    6. P. J. Zarco-Tejada & T. Poblete & C. Camino & V. Gonzalez-Dugo & R. Calderon & A. Hornero & R. Hernandez-Clemente & M. Román-Écija & M. P. Velasco-Amo & B. B. Landa & P. S. A. Beck & M. Saponari & D. , 2021. "Divergent abiotic spectral pathways unravel pathogen stress signals across species," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:9250-9259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eric Cain (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.pnas.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.