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Feasibility of Currency Unions in Asia - An Assessment Using Generalized Purchasing Power Parity -

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroyuki Taguchi

    (Vice President, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance)

Abstract

This paper examined the economic feasibility of forming a regional currency block in Asia, by adopting a generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) approach to identify the existence of common trends in real exchange rates among a group of countries. To be specific, we conducted both bilateral and multilateral co-integration estimation on real exchange rates with the samples of 17 Asian countries covering south Asia during the post- 1997-98 crisis period. Our findings are as follows; First, Japan, China and Korea are shown to be little candidate for any optimum currency areas. Second, ASEAN and south Asia, as a group, passed the G-PPP condition. Third, some co-integrating interactions were interestingly found between ASEAN and south Asian members. Our strategic implication emphasizes on the significance of a smaller local subgroup multi-speed strategy toward a long-run goal of currency union in Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroyuki Taguchi, 2010. "Feasibility of Currency Unions in Asia - An Assessment Using Generalized Purchasing Power Parity -," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 6(5), pages 859-872, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr011e
    as

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    File URL: http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/9908001/www.mof.go.jp/english/pri/publication/pp_review/ppr011/ppr011e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Hong Liang, 1999. "Do Hong Kong SAR and China Constitute An Optimal Currency Area? An Empirical Test of the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," IMF Working Papers 1999/079, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    4. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 1994. "Theory and Tests of Generalized Purchasing-Power Parity: Common Trends and Real Exchange Rates in the Pacific Rim," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 179-190, June.
    5. Changmo AHN & Hong‐Bum KIM & Dongkoo CHANG, 2006. "Is East Asia Fit For An Optimum Currency Area? An Assessment Of The Economic Feasibility Of A Higher Degree Of Monetary Cooperation In East Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 288-305, September.
    6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
    7. Taufiq Choudhry, 2005. "Asian Currency Crisis and the Generalized PPP: Evidence from the Far East," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 137-157, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ishaq Maryam & Atiq Ur Rehman Muhammad, 2013. "Surmounting the Individual: Establishing a Common Currency in Asia – A Case Study of East Asian Economies," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 63-88, January.
    2. Hendriks, Johannes Jurgens & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2022. "Testing for the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis between South Africa and its main trading partners: application of the quantile approach," MPRA Paper 112915, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; generalized purchasing power parity; co-integrating relationship; ASEAN; south Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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