IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mir/mirbus/v5y2015i7p1-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Integrated Model to Predict Corporate Failure of Listed Companies in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Nisansala Wijekoon

    (University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka)

  • A. Abdul Azeez

    (University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.)

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to develop an integrated model to predict corporate failure of listed companies in Sri Lanka. The logistic regression analysis was employed to a data set of 70 matched-pairs of failed and non-failed companies listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) in Sri Lanka over the period 2002 to 2010. A total of fifteen financial ratios and eight corporate governance variables were used as predictor variables of corporate failure. Analysis of the statistical testing results indicated that model consists with both corporate governance variables and financial ratios improved the prediction accuracy to reach 88.57 per cent one year prior to failure. Furthermore, predictive accuracy of this model in all three years prior to failure is above 80 per cent. Hence model is robust in obtaining accurate results for up to three years prior to failure. It was further found that two financial ratios, working capital to total assets and cash flow from operating activities to total assets, and two corporate governance variables, outside director ratio and company audit committee are having more explanatory power to predict corporate failure. Therefore, model developed in this study can assist investors, managers, shareholders, financial institutions, auditors and regulatory agents in Sri Lanka to forecast corporate failure of listed companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nisansala Wijekoon & A. Abdul Azeez, 2015. "An Integrated Model to Predict Corporate Failure of Listed Companies in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(7), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mir:mirbus:v:5:y:2015:i:7:p:1-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://thejournalofbusiness.org/index.php/site/article/view/801/536
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Casey, C & Bartczak, N, 1985. "Using Operating Cash Flow Data To Predict Financial Distress - Some Extensions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 384-401.
    2. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    3. Scott, James, 1981. "The probability of bankruptcy: A comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-344, September.
    4. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    5. Lee, Tsun-Siou & Yeh, Yin-Hua & Liu, Rong-Tze, 2003. "Can Corporate Governance Variables Enhance the Prediction Power of Accounting-Based Financial Distress Prediction Models?," CEI Working Paper Series 2003-14, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Blum, M, 1974. "Failing Company Discriminant-Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25.
    7. Becht, Marco & Bolton, Patrick & Roell, Ailsa, 2003. "Corporate governance and control," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 1-109, Elsevier.
    8. Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.
    9. John A. Wagner III & J. L. Stimpert & Edward I. Fubara, 1998. "Board Composition and Organizational Performance: Two Studies of Insider/outsider Effects," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 655-677, September.
    10. Abdul Aziz & David C. Emanuel & Gerald H. Lawson, 1988. "Bankruptcy Prediction ‐ An Investigation Of Cash Flow Based Models[1]," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 419-437, September.
    11. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    12. Micha, Bernard, 1984. "Analysis of business failures in France," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 281-291, June.
    13. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    14. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    15. Rajeswararao S. Chaganti & Vijay Mahajan & Subhash Sharma, 1985. "Corporate Board Size, Composition And Corporate Failures In Retailing Industry[1]," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 400-417, July.
    16. Eisenbeis, Robert A, 1977. "Pitfalls in the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business, Finance, and Economics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 875-900, June.
    17. Johnson, Craig G, 1970. "Ratio Analysis and the Predicition of Firm Failure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1166-1168, December.
    18. Tsun‐Siou Lee & Yin‐Hua Yeh, 2004. "Corporate Governance and Financial Distress: evidence from Taiwan," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 378-388, July.
    19. Gentry, Ja & Newbold, P & Whitford, Dt, 1985. "Classifying Bankrupt Firms With Funds Flow Components," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 146-160.
    20. Fama, Eugene F & Jensen, Michael C, 1983. "Separation of Ownership and Control," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 301-325, June.
    21. WILLIAM HOPWOOD & JAMES McKEOWN & JANE MUTCHLER, 1988. "The sensitivity of financial distress prediction models to departures from normality," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 284-298, September.
    22. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    23. Opler, Tim C & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Financial Distress and Corporate Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1015-1040, July.
    24. Catherine M. Daily & Dan R. Dalton, 1994. "Corporate governance and the bankrupt firm: An empirical assessment," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(8), pages 643-654, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Battisti, Enrico & Alfiero, Simona & Leonidou, Erasmia, 2022. "Remote working and digital transformation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Economic–financial impacts and psychological drivers for employees," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 38-50.
    2. Nurul Izzaty Hasanah Azhar & Norziana Lokman & Md. Mahmudul Alam & Jamaliah Said, 2021. "Factors determining Z-score and corporate failure in Malaysian companies," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 370-386.
    3. Jayant Hooda & Vijay Singh & Amit Dangi, 2021. "Discriminant model of revenue prediction: a study of selected top performing companies in India," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(2), pages 185-193, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nisansala Wijekoon & A. Abdul Azeez, 2015. "An Integrated Model to Predict Corporate Failure of Listed Companies in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(7), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
    3. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
    4. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    5. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2022. "Does board committee independence affect financial distress likelihood? A comparison of China with the UK," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 723-761, June.
    6. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    7. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    8. Layla Khoja & Maxwell Chipulu & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2016. "Analysing corporate insolvency in the Gulf Cooperation Council using logistic regression and multidimensional scaling," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 483-518, April.
    9. Manzaneque, Montserrat & Priego, Alba María & Merino, Elena, 2016. "Corporate governance effect on financial distress likelihood: Evidence from Spain," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 111-121.
    10. Umair Bin Yousaf & Khalil Jebran & Irfan Ullah, 2024. "Corporate governance and financial distress: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1627-1679, April.
    11. Jackson, Richard H.G. & Wood, Anthony, 2013. "The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 183-202.
    12. Liang, Deron & Tsai, Chih-Fong & Lu, Hung-Yuan (Richard) & Chang, Li-Shin, 2020. "Combining corporate governance indicators with stacking ensembles for financial distress prediction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 137-146.
    13. Lin, Hsiou-Wei William & Lo, Huai-Chun & Wu, Ruei-Shian, 2016. "Modeling default prediction with earnings management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 306-322.
    14. Hamid Waqas & Rohani Md-Rus, 2018. "Predicting financial distress: Applicability of O-score model for Pakistani firms," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(2), pages 389-401, April.
    15. McGurr, Paul T. & DeVaney, Sharon A., 1998. "Predicting Business Failure of Retail Firms: An Analysis Using Mixed Industry Models," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 169-176, November.
    16. Hu, Yu-Chiang & Ansell, Jake, 2007. "Measuring retail company performance using credit scoring techniques," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1595-1606, December.
    17. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    18. García-Gallego, Ana & Mures-Quintana, María-Jesús, 2013. "La muestra de empresas en los modelos de predicción del fracaso: influencia en los resultados de clasificación || The Sample of Firms in Business Failure Prediction Models: Influence on Classification," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 15(1), pages 133-150, June.
    19. Ha-Thu Nguyen, 2014. "Default Predictors in Credit Scoring - Evidence from France’s Retail Banking Institution," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mir:mirbus:v:5:y:2015:i:7:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M Kabir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csmirus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.